3 ms·

It seems like the countries that are doing the best are Taiwan, Singapore, and HK. https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/ htt

• jfnixon 7y ago
  Singapore and HK are cities, really, and the Singapore approach, aggressive contact tracing with mandatory stay at home orders, doesn't scale. Taiwan and Japan are outliers so far, and they are monocultures, with famous compliance rates. Korea is somewhat similar to Japan, but took a hit early, and has managed to beat it back. China appears to have peaked, but did this with massive application of governmental policies which would never fly in the West. Flatten the curve doesn't change that a large number of people are going to get this disease. The best news is danger increases with age, unlike the Spanish Flu. Africa is very young (media age), the US and China are roughly the same, while the EU in general is older (Italy and Germany especially). What matters is not hospital beds per capita, but ICU beds per capita. The US does much better by that measure. You don't need an ICU bed to give oxygen, which is what most serious clinical cases require. MIT Sloan gave a prize last year for a less expensive, simpler ventilator designed for most cases in countries with limited resources. We have options that aren't explored yet.
  • Noumenon72 7y ago
    I don't see why contact tracing doesn't scale. The only thing preventing Google and Apple from producing a contact history for everyone is privacy laws and people without phones.