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> but I am not sure that's true, in Italy they are building hospital wings or re-adapting abandoned hospitals in many places. Rome has 4 planned covid hospitals

by devy 7y ago

> but I am not sure that's true, in Italy they are building hospital wings or re-adapting abandoned hospitals in many places. Rome has 4 planned covid hospitals as of now. True. But those are being done after the fact. It's too late already for Italy. By comparison, the U.S. still has time now before the curve shot straight up to the max - then no amount of measures are going to be able to keep up with the viral infection rate (and death counts)

lawn 7y ago
> By comparison, the U.S. still has time now before the curve shot straight up to the max How much time do you think there is? Until recently there have been very little testing, so we don't even know where the US is on the curve. Even if we assume it's early, that's still just a couple of weeks if time.
bad_user 7y ago
The US, like most other countries, is only a couple of days behind Italy. Italy had 100 total cases only ~20 days ago. The problem with this virus is that it goes from 1 case to hell in only a couple of weeks. If you already have 100 confirmed cases, it's too late to stop what's coming.
- aksss 7y ago
  So conversely if US hasn’t gone to hell in a couple weeks, it indicates we’ve been doing something right?
  - bad_user 7y ago
    Sadly that's not a possibility. According to mathematical models the capacity of your hospitals will be exceeded by more than 30 times. Give it another week or two. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
    - bad_user 7y ago
      As a follow-up to this message, we're now 9 days later and New York is overwhelmed, predicted to run out of intensive-care beds tomorrow, with other states quickly following.
  - fyp 7y ago
    If our testing infrastructure is in place to get correct counts, yes. Countries can be "graded" based on their trajectory on this graph: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-th...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

by devy 7y ago

lawn 7y ago

> By comparison, the U.S. still has time now before the curve shot straight up to the max How much time do you think there is? Until recently there have been very little testing, so we don't even know where the US is on the curve. Even if we assume it's early, that's still just a couple of weeks if time.

bad_user 7y ago

The US, like most other countries, is only a couple of days behind Italy. Italy had 100 total cases only ~20 days ago. The problem with this virus is that it goes from 1 case to hell in only a couple of weeks. If you already have 100 confirmed cases, it's too late to stop what's coming.

aksss 7y ago
So conversely if US hasn’t gone to hell in a couple weeks, it indicates we’ve been doing something right?
- bad_user 7y ago
  Sadly that's not a possibility. According to mathematical models the capacity of your hospitals will be exceeded by more than 30 times. Give it another week or two. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
  - bad_user 7y ago
    As a follow-up to this message, we're now 9 days later and New York is overwhelmed, predicted to run out of intensive-care beds tomorrow, with other states quickly following.
- fyp 7y ago
  If our testing infrastructure is in place to get correct counts, yes. Countries can be "graded" based on their trajectory on this graph: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-th...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]