I wouldn't underestimate the effectiveness and ability to respond of highly developed (and small) states like Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan. They have very go

I wouldn't underestimate the effectiveness and ability to respond of highly developed (and small) states like Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan. They have very good control of their borders and the (medical) resources to act in case of trouble. Not only that but I think they have learned a few lessons after the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. Anecdotal, but while in Hong Kong (2014) there were a few things that stood out: - they had thermal screening for ALL passengers - while walking towards customs an agent asked me to take my hat off and pointed to the thermal cameras. In contrast, at Bucharest's airport they were set up 3 weeks ago. As of 2019, there were 1.2M Romanian citizens living in Italy, about 600k in the northern part. - banners against spitting in the trash bin - coming with a big fine. More generally speaking, a general state of cleanliness which can't be found in many EU capitals. - no toilets in the subway - might be sources of contamination. And when you finally found a public toilet, they were as clean as they can be. I think there are better odds of finding a cure fast than for Europe to contain this. Note, the evening before the Milan area lockdown people were rushing to the train stations - Schenghen area is borderless.