So I know it's almost impossible to predict the stock market, but... a lot of this crash seems to be based on panic and human psychology concerning the virus (I

So I know it's almost impossible to predict the stock market, but... a lot of this crash seems to be based on panic and human psychology concerning the virus (I know there is some effect due to the oil price war though). My question is: if we assume 20-40% of people in the U.S. are drastically underestimating how bad the virus is going to be, then they are more likely to hold their stock until there is finally "proof" that the virus is as bad as everyone with some amount of scientific understanding knows it is going to be, at which point we would expect some portion of these people to panic sell. Wouldn't that indicate that in an event like this, we're not betting on essentially random fluctuations of an emergent economic system, but rather on many people not understanding the trajectory of the virus? In other words, it's almost like a prediction market at this point — you're betting against other people about how damaging the virus is going to end up being. Am I off base here?