4 ms·

From what I can see, these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-co

From what I can see, these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... is one citation. And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it.

jMyles 7y ago
> these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed I have to say, I think this is a very insensitive thing to say. Being in a position of privilege to likely avoid the consequences of authoritarian tendencies is wonderful, but most people don't enjoy such a position. Authoritarian tactics are per se wrong. > And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. I didn't suggest that, no. But it is one of the interventions that makes sense. And generally, obviously, fresh air and exercise are important for overall health and wellness. Tangentially related: warmth and humidity is likely, according to some researchers, to drastically reduce replication and transmission. [0] [1] So getting out in the sun (with reasonable social distancing) can't hurt, and it might help. (Even more tangentially: some researchers believe that very high heats, such as with sauna therapy, can even further reduce replication, based on this 2004 paper [2]) 0: https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and-humid-weather-may-end-the-novel-coronavirus https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and... 1: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 2: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ > Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it. Michael Osterholm himself has spoken extensively on his apprehension about shelter-in-place as a policy to combat coronaviruses, including COVID-19, including during his recent (very informative) interview with Joe Rogan, during which he specifically discussed school closings as well. [3] By the way, his contention is also that neither environment heat nor sauna therapy are supported by the data as likely mitigations. So different smart people are saying different things, as we might expect in such a situation. 3: https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_play=true https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_pl...
- raphlinus 7y ago
  Thanks for the citation from CIDRAP. I haven't watched the Joe Rogan podcast, but I did read an interview [1] where Dr. Osterholm gave reasoning, basically saying that the science is not in yet on the role that children have in the transmission of the virus. That's fair, though I think that is starting to fill in. For example, in the Imperial study [2] (one of the most important documents of the day), their modeling shows a fairly substantial improvement in deaths from closing most universities and schools compared with not doing so (I'm looking at PC_CI_HQ_SDOL70 vs CI_HQ_SDOL70 on the chart on page 9 in particular). I think we'll have an increasingly solid scientific basis for this decision soon. The discussion on authoritarianism is one too deep for this comment thread, but I would like to leave you with a question, now hypothetical, but might be less so soon. This virus is a bit of an uncontrolled experiment on the ability of different countries and regional governments to handle crisis. What if the evidence provided by this experiment suggests that authoritarian systems are better able to suppress the virus because they can actually get people to avoid harmful behavior, where in freer systems it's just not possible to get the rate of selfish behavior down to the point of being effective? [1]: https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/this-is-not-going-to-be-like-a-minnesota-blizzard/article_5332fcf2-66c9-11ea-a60d-9f38cca2a0e9.html https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/this-is-not-going-t... [2]: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

jMyles 7y ago

> these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed I have to say, I think this is a very insensitive thing to say. Being in a position of privilege to likely avoid the consequences of authoritarian tendencies is wonderful, but most people don't enjoy such a position. Authoritarian tactics are per se wrong. > And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. I didn't suggest that, no. But it is one of the interventions that makes sense. And generally, obviously, fresh air and exercise are important for overall health and wellness. Tangentially related: warmth and humidity is likely, according to some researchers, to drastically reduce replication and transmission. [0] [1] So getting out in the sun (with reasonable social distancing) can't hurt, and it might help. (Even more tangentially: some researchers believe that very high heats, such as with sauna therapy, can even further reduce replication, based on this 2004 paper [2]) 0: https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and-humid-weather-may-end-the-novel-coronavirus https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and... 1: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 2: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ > Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it. Michael Osterholm himself has spoken extensively on his apprehension about shelter-in-place as a policy to combat coronaviruses, including COVID-19, including during his recent (very informative) interview with Joe Rogan, during which he specifically discussed school closings as well. [3] By the way, his contention is also that neither environment heat nor sauna therapy are supported by the data as likely mitigations. So different smart people are saying different things, as we might expect in such a situation. 3: https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_play=true https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_pl...

raphlinus 7y ago
Thanks for the citation from CIDRAP. I haven't watched the Joe Rogan podcast, but I did read an interview [1] where Dr. Osterholm gave reasoning, basically saying that the science is not in yet on the role that children have in the transmission of the virus. That's fair, though I think that is starting to fill in. For example, in the Imperial study [2] (one of the most important documents of the day), their modeling shows a fairly substantial improvement in deaths from closing most universities and schools compared with not doing so (I'm looking at PC_CI_HQ_SDOL70 vs CI_HQ_SDOL70 on the chart on page 9 in particular). I think we'll have an increasingly solid scientific basis for this decision soon. The discussion on authoritarianism is one too deep for this comment thread, but I would like to leave you with a question, now hypothetical, but might be less so soon. This virus is a bit of an uncontrolled experiment on the ability of different countries and regional governments to handle crisis. What if the evidence provided by this experiment suggests that authoritarian systems are better able to suppress the virus because they can actually get people to avoid harmful behavior, where in freer systems it's just not possible to get the rate of selfish behavior down to the point of being effective? [1]: https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/this-is-not-going-to-be-like-a-minnesota-blizzard/article_5332fcf2-66c9-11ea-a60d-9f38cca2a0e9.html https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/this-is-not-going-t... [2]: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...