4 ms·

flattenthecurve.com has a good general audience to smart person presentation on why this is needed. For a more expert audience, the recent report from Imperial

flattenthecurve.com has a good general audience to smart person presentation on why this is needed. For a more expert audience, the recent report from Imperial College [1] provides detailed analysis. [1]: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... [edit, as apparently you edited your comment after I posted my response] The essay you linked praises the complete lockdown in Wuhan as being effective. That said, it's written by an AI researcher, as opposed to a public health expert.

hardtke 7y ago
But given that it only applies to a limited geographical region with free movement in and out not restricted it is unclear it will have the desired effect. This policy needs to be at the state or national level to be effective.
- raphlinus 7y ago
  It would be better to have a coordinated response on this. But as a wise leader once said, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
- rhizome 7y ago
  It's not about a specifically bounded result, it's about being either a flatter curve or a taller one. The more people act in the interest of flattening the curve is the benefit.
closeparen 7y ago
That report indicates that shelter-in-place will need to continue for approximately two years, with intermittent breaks.
- raphlinus 7y ago
  It's a model, and a lot can change. In that time frame, it's actually quite reasonable to expect we'll develop effective vaccines and treatments. We might be able to roll out comprehensive and fine-grained testing (as has been done to some extent in countries like South Korea and Singapore). The alternative is to just let it burn through the population, hoping it takes out mostly economically unproductive people (the sick and elderly), and letting business as usual go on. Some might find this an acceptable policy, but I do not.

hardtke 7y ago

But given that it only applies to a limited geographical region with free movement in and out not restricted it is unclear it will have the desired effect. This policy needs to be at the state or national level to be effective.

raphlinus 7y ago
It would be better to have a coordinated response on this. But as a wise leader once said, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
rhizome 7y ago
It's not about a specifically bounded result, it's about being either a flatter curve or a taller one. The more people act in the interest of flattening the curve is the benefit.

closeparen 7y ago

That report indicates that shelter-in-place will need to continue for approximately two years, with intermittent breaks.

raphlinus 7y ago
It's a model, and a lot can change. In that time frame, it's actually quite reasonable to expect we'll develop effective vaccines and treatments. We might be able to roll out comprehensive and fine-grained testing (as has been done to some extent in countries like South Korea and Singapore). The alternative is to just let it burn through the population, hoping it takes out mostly economically unproductive people (the sick and elderly), and letting business as usual go on. Some might find this an acceptable policy, but I do not.