> We've had 71 deaths from COVID-19 so far It seems unadvisable to look at exponential curves with a linear mindset… Consider a different way of estimating:

> We've had 71 deaths from COVID-19 so far It seems unadvisable to look at exponential curves with a linear mindset… Consider a different way of estimating: There are >300m people in the US. It's easily conceivable that >50% of them could catch the virus. CFR is likely to end up >.5% (Korea, with excellent medical care and very widespread screening, so probably one of the smaller numerators / largest denominators around, still currently has rates higher than that). That would already give a rather high number of fatalities. And if the health care system gets overloaded, CFR is going to be quite a bit higher than assumed above. [Disclaimer: Not medically trained or otherwise qualified]