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Goldman Sachs already said they expect a further drop of 20%. Of course, this is just the beginning.

by coliveira 7y ago

xwdv 7y ago
Others have already forecast a drop of at least 60%. 20% is definitely only the beginning.
- akvadrako 7y ago
  If anyone could predict the stock market they wouldn’t be telling you.
  - coliveira 7y ago
    The issue is not prediction, is expectation. The market moves on expected outcomes, not on reality. The reality may change down the road, but the expectation is to go down a lot more.
    - akvadrako 7y ago
      Sorry but that's completely wrong; the marketing moving is a reality. The issue is prediction - will the market move and in which way??
      - coliveira 7y ago
        Incorrect, the market moves on expectation, anyone that has traded the market knows this. If expectations are terrible, the market will tumble, it doesn't matter what is happening right now.
        akvadrako 7y ago
        I am only talking about one thing - the market going up or down. That’s the entire reality. Expectations contribute to that, making them part of reality.
        xwdv 7y ago
        Forecasting that the market will drop 60% has a way of making that an expectation if enough people believe it, and then it happens, and the prediction comes true.
        akvadrako 7y ago
        No, that's just another way of predicting the market. Which nobody can do.
  - zone411 7y ago
    They might after they made the trade.
aguyfromnb 7y ago
>Goldman Sachs already said they expect a further drop of 20%. Of course, this is just the beginning. In November, Goldman Sachs was calling for 3.5% Global GDP growth. They are guessing, like the rest of us.
- Sargos 7y ago
  They would have likely been right if not for Covid 19. It's not just guessing.
  - edmundsauto 7y ago
    They would also likely have been right in 2007, if it weren't for the CDS disaster. Same as LTCM in the 90s. Same with every crash -- they're right until something their models don't correctly model have a massive, outsized effect on things. The swings, and combined with high leverage positions, can wipe out firms.
  - aguyfromnb 7y ago
    >It's not just guessing You're right, there's a lot of research that goes into the forecasts. What I meant was the results are no better than guessing. >They would have likely been right I would have likely been right about every forecast I've ever made if it wasn't for unexpected things happening. Covid19 had started in China in November, when the forecast was made. How did they account for it in their models? "It won't matter" was a huge miss. How about this one?: "According to Goldman Sachs, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices could average $63 per barrel and $58.5 per barrel, respectively, in 2020." We're at <$30. I mean, they correctly anticipated the breakup of "OPEC+", but blew the forecast tremendously. https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/oil-prices-outlook-goldman-sachs-sees-new-high/ https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/oil-prices-outlook-goldman... You can endlessly Google examples. My point isn't that I'm better, but that Goldman Sachs' predictions are nigh worthless. And that's before taking into account any conflict of interest.

Goldman Sachs already said they expect a further drop of 20%. Of course, this is just the beginning.

xwdv 7y ago

Others have already forecast a drop of at least 60%. 20% is definitely only the beginning.

akvadrako 7y ago
If anyone could predict the stock market they wouldn’t be telling you.
- coliveira 7y ago
  The issue is not prediction, is expectation. The market moves on expected outcomes, not on reality. The reality may change down the road, but the expectation is to go down a lot more.
  - akvadrako 7y ago
    Sorry but that's completely wrong; the marketing moving is a reality. The issue is prediction - will the market move and in which way??
    - coliveira 7y ago
      Incorrect, the market moves on expectation, anyone that has traded the market knows this. If expectations are terrible, the market will tumble, it doesn't matter what is happening right now.
      - akvadrako 7y ago
        I am only talking about one thing - the market going up or down. That’s the entire reality. Expectations contribute to that, making them part of reality.
        xwdv 7y ago
        Forecasting that the market will drop 60% has a way of making that an expectation if enough people believe it, and then it happens, and the prediction comes true.
        akvadrako 7y ago
        No, that's just another way of predicting the market. Which nobody can do.
- zone411 7y ago
  They might after they made the trade.

aguyfromnb 7y ago

>Goldman Sachs already said they expect a further drop of 20%. Of course, this is just the beginning. In November, Goldman Sachs was calling for 3.5% Global GDP growth. They are guessing, like the rest of us.

Sargos 7y ago
They would have likely been right if not for Covid 19. It's not just guessing.
- edmundsauto 7y ago
  They would also likely have been right in 2007, if it weren't for the CDS disaster. Same as LTCM in the 90s. Same with every crash -- they're right until something their models don't correctly model have a massive, outsized effect on things. The swings, and combined with high leverage positions, can wipe out firms.
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  >It's not just guessing You're right, there's a lot of research that goes into the forecasts. What I meant was the results are no better than guessing. >They would have likely been right I would have likely been right about every forecast I've ever made if it wasn't for unexpected things happening. Covid19 had started in China in November, when the forecast was made. How did they account for it in their models? "It won't matter" was a huge miss. How about this one?: "According to Goldman Sachs, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices could average $63 per barrel and $58.5 per barrel, respectively, in 2020." We're at <$30. I mean, they correctly anticipated the breakup of "OPEC+", but blew the forecast tremendously. https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/oil-prices-outlook-goldman-sachs-sees-new-high/ https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/oil-prices-outlook-goldman... You can endlessly Google examples. My point isn't that I'm better, but that Goldman Sachs' predictions are nigh worthless. And that's before taking into account any conflict of interest.