6 ms·

Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a

by Hasz 7y ago

Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.

tomerbd 7y ago
It's not so shallow, the stock market is still bubbly, these are the prices of mid 2017, when everyone said that the stock market is a bubble...
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  To add further perspective: The S&P is just below where it was in December of 2018. Do you still have the same optimism about the US (and even the world) economy now than you did then? For me, the answer is a resounding No.
  - pathseeker 7y ago
    But companies have expanded since then. It doesn't take the same optimism to invest at the same price points as 2018 as it did in 2018 (even ignoring inflation).
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- mrlala 7y ago
  Yeah exactly.. people are saying it's the low today? Yeah good luck timing that. Maybe they are right.. but like you just said- these are prices just a couple years ago. The modern world has never seen what is going on, and the economic impacts are almost unfathomable. Claiming we are near a bottom just because it's dropped a lot is naive.
- zoomablemind 7y ago
  That's what I'm seeing too. Even more, based on the mandated closings and limits on business, there'll be some future econ. damage to restore. How do we lately do that? Stimulus packages, bail-outs, QE. The very same thing that drove us to the [still] frothy highs and ticked up the external debt. It is a global issue, but at the end each economy will be affected locally. Let's just hope the human cost could be contained.
kirse 7y ago
Having been roughly in your position back during the 2008 dump... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=318595 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=318595 Don't forget, the market can drop 20% a day for awhile. Plenty of smart folks are sitting on the sidelines with cash, but time will tell if this is the trigger for a much larger longer-term 2020 deleveraging. Markets aren't even where they were pre-Trump election yet, so this 30% haircut from the top isn't even a "correction" from some viewpoints. I personally wish I was ballsier back in 2008/2009 (Ford for $1, BoA for similar prices, etc), but it'd also be premature to jump into this market if you truly think it's the tip of a recessionary iceberg. Recessions take 3-6 months minimum to spill over into WallSt. If you're not jaw-agape at the prices of some of your favorite companies, it's probably not the bottom just yet. Further, if you take the pessimistic view (ala Japan Nikkei), you might get stuck holding stock that never recovers. Be patient.
- rabidrat 7y ago
  FWIW, I was ballsier back in 2008 and bought WAMU on the way down. It's exciting to watch your investment go all the way down to 0 :/
  - wj 7y ago
    I did as well. I was certain they were going to be rescued!
- rnd33 7y ago
  The problem is separating the great recessions from less dramatic recessions. Was 2008/2009 a once in a decade recession or once in a century recession? In a normal recession you'll never get Ford for $1, and most stocks will never feel that cheap.
  - kirse 7y ago
    Right now the bulk (>95%) of this short-term correction is tied directly to COVID-19 total infections + infection-rate data. The parasitic drag on second and third-order (and beyond) economic factors have barely kicked in (i.e. lost productivity from WFH, people without jobs, businesses unable to stay afloat because of credit / liquidity / debt servicing issues, etc). The fundamental value-producing capabilities of most companies are exactly the same as they were two weeks ago. Chick-fil-a can still make the same great sandwich, and AMD can still make the same great chips. Theoretically if someone released a miracle cure today that could be distributed in 2 weeks, you'd witness the greatest bull rally in the history of the US over this remaining week. All that to say you don't really need to guess on this one right now. So long as we don't see a flattening/slowing of the US infections curve, markets will continue trending downward as compounding negative impacts/expectations on those 2nd/3rd-order economic effects begin to pile up. For now, the right answer is to stay out of the market. Over the next 4 weeks you'll have all the data you need to decide if this will return as a monster bull rally or a long-term 2020+ drag on the economy. Keep an eye on your COVID-19 dashboard. As soon as the data starts to flatten out, consider an entry point. (with the caveat it doesn't return in full force based on season - look into the 1918 flu). If infections continue to accelerate though (which they currently are), stay out.
baybal2 7y ago
29 here Entered the workforce right after 2007, in my 16, after moving to Singapore from small town Russia as an exchange student. Financial fortunes of my patents went nowhere, and I had to keep myself afloat for pretty much 2.5 years. Made not so bad money selling low end electronics to the third world on Alibaba, and such. Then, my parents made me dump all my money on the best things since sliced bread: "Business Education" in Canada. So I will "never ever be in need, and be making money like those big men from America" Wasted 3 years of my life on that, it was useless. And in 2014, they made me buy an apartment in my hometown under an immense pressure, and "or else" threats for me "not having a chance getting a wife, without one" A month later, the Russian roubles folds, property prices collapse. And I just parted with $78k USD, having just a few months of savings left, while my job in Canada was burning. Somehow, I recovered. 5 months later I got $29k back to Canada. Life was good again, I got my first Canadian girlfriend. Then at the end of 2015, when I just began making big plans for my life again, my troubles began to mount again... It was found out that my last employer in Canada was for some reason unable to secure LMIA after applying for it for 3 times in a row. I tried every option to extend my stay in the country, but the government was hellbent on reducing the amount of work permit holders, closing every legal workaround for extension. I spent tons of moneys on immigration lawyers, without avail. I decided to cut my loss short, and leave in 2016. Having to leave Canada after 6 years, leaving a lot of money there, and almost getting a family, was a bitter, bitter loss. I was enraged for month. After leaving 10 years abroad, I was completely unable to fit in Russian society of the day, and got robbed just weeks after arriving. After doing few remote gigs, and throwing tons of money left and right to sweeten my grief, I got to think of going to China, a country whose manufacturing Industry I owe most of the money I earned in my career. Been working in China since 2016 Ironically, the most normal part of my life began in the least normal country of them all. My last relationship was a beautiful 29 years old self made entrepreneur, and an owner of a chemical factory. I dated her for a while, but had to leave for a series of extended assignments abroad. After returning just 10 month later, I found her already engaged to somebody more enterprising than me :( Again, fortunes cut short just few centimetres away from the finish line. This bittersweet life. Now, when China is descending into mass madness again, I am risking to loose everything again.
- zoomablemind 7y ago
orbifold 7y ago
I have puts on a bunch of stocks that target the 52 week low or 10-15% below that in ~3 months. So far that strategy has been wildly profitable. There have been tons of stocks that doubled or tripled in value in 2019, no way that is a realistic price in the next 2-3 years.

by Hasz 7y ago

Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.

tomerbd 7y ago

It's not so shallow, the stock market is still bubbly, these are the prices of mid 2017, when everyone said that the stock market is a bubble...

AznHisoka 7y ago
To add further perspective: The S&P is just below where it was in December of 2018. Do you still have the same optimism about the US (and even the world) economy now than you did then? For me, the answer is a resounding No.
- pathseeker 7y ago
  But companies have expanded since then. It doesn't take the same optimism to invest at the same price points as 2018 as it did in 2018 (even ignoring inflation).
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
mrlala 7y ago
Yeah exactly.. people are saying it's the low today? Yeah good luck timing that. Maybe they are right.. but like you just said- these are prices just a couple years ago. The modern world has never seen what is going on, and the economic impacts are almost unfathomable. Claiming we are near a bottom just because it's dropped a lot is naive.
zoomablemind 7y ago
That's what I'm seeing too. Even more, based on the mandated closings and limits on business, there'll be some future econ. damage to restore. How do we lately do that? Stimulus packages, bail-outs, QE. The very same thing that drove us to the [still] frothy highs and ticked up the external debt. It is a global issue, but at the end each economy will be affected locally. Let's just hope the human cost could be contained.

kirse 7y ago

Having been roughly in your position back during the 2008 dump... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=318595 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=318595 Don't forget, the market can drop 20% a day for awhile. Plenty of smart folks are sitting on the sidelines with cash, but time will tell if this is the trigger for a much larger longer-term 2020 deleveraging. Markets aren't even where they were pre-Trump election yet, so this 30% haircut from the top isn't even a "correction" from some viewpoints. I personally wish I was ballsier back in 2008/2009 (Ford for $1, BoA for similar prices, etc), but it'd also be premature to jump into this market if you truly think it's the tip of a recessionary iceberg. Recessions take 3-6 months minimum to spill over into WallSt. If you're not jaw-agape at the prices of some of your favorite companies, it's probably not the bottom just yet. Further, if you take the pessimistic view (ala Japan Nikkei), you might get stuck holding stock that never recovers. Be patient.

rabidrat 7y ago
FWIW, I was ballsier back in 2008 and bought WAMU on the way down. It's exciting to watch your investment go all the way down to 0 :/
- wj 7y ago
  I did as well. I was certain they were going to be rescued!
rnd33 7y ago
The problem is separating the great recessions from less dramatic recessions. Was 2008/2009 a once in a decade recession or once in a century recession? In a normal recession you'll never get Ford for $1, and most stocks will never feel that cheap.
- kirse 7y ago
  Right now the bulk (>95%) of this short-term correction is tied directly to COVID-19 total infections + infection-rate data. The parasitic drag on second and third-order (and beyond) economic factors have barely kicked in (i.e. lost productivity from WFH, people without jobs, businesses unable to stay afloat because of credit / liquidity / debt servicing issues, etc). The fundamental value-producing capabilities of most companies are exactly the same as they were two weeks ago. Chick-fil-a can still make the same great sandwich, and AMD can still make the same great chips. Theoretically if someone released a miracle cure today that could be distributed in 2 weeks, you'd witness the greatest bull rally in the history of the US over this remaining week. All that to say you don't really need to guess on this one right now. So long as we don't see a flattening/slowing of the US infections curve, markets will continue trending downward as compounding negative impacts/expectations on those 2nd/3rd-order economic effects begin to pile up. For now, the right answer is to stay out of the market. Over the next 4 weeks you'll have all the data you need to decide if this will return as a monster bull rally or a long-term 2020+ drag on the economy. Keep an eye on your COVID-19 dashboard. As soon as the data starts to flatten out, consider an entry point. (with the caveat it doesn't return in full force based on season - look into the 1918 flu). If infections continue to accelerate though (which they currently are), stay out.

baybal2 7y ago

29 here Entered the workforce right after 2007, in my 16, after moving to Singapore from small town Russia as an exchange student. Financial fortunes of my patents went nowhere, and I had to keep myself afloat for pretty much 2.5 years. Made not so bad money selling low end electronics to the third world on Alibaba, and such. Then, my parents made me dump all my money on the best things since sliced bread: "Business Education" in Canada. So I will "never ever be in need, and be making money like those big men from America" Wasted 3 years of my life on that, it was useless. And in 2014, they made me buy an apartment in my hometown under an immense pressure, and "or else" threats for me "not having a chance getting a wife, without one" A month later, the Russian roubles folds, property prices collapse. And I just parted with $78k USD, having just a few months of savings left, while my job in Canada was burning. Somehow, I recovered. 5 months later I got $29k back to Canada. Life was good again, I got my first Canadian girlfriend. Then at the end of 2015, when I just began making big plans for my life again, my troubles began to mount again... It was found out that my last employer in Canada was for some reason unable to secure LMIA after applying for it for 3 times in a row. I tried every option to extend my stay in the country, but the government was hellbent on reducing the amount of work permit holders, closing every legal workaround for extension. I spent tons of moneys on immigration lawyers, without avail. I decided to cut my loss short, and leave in 2016. Having to leave Canada after 6 years, leaving a lot of money there, and almost getting a family, was a bitter, bitter loss. I was enraged for month. After leaving 10 years abroad, I was completely unable to fit in Russian society of the day, and got robbed just weeks after arriving. After doing few remote gigs, and throwing tons of money left and right to sweeten my grief, I got to think of going to China, a country whose manufacturing Industry I owe most of the money I earned in my career. Been working in China since 2016 Ironically, the most normal part of my life began in the least normal country of them all. My last relationship was a beautiful 29 years old self made entrepreneur, and an owner of a chemical factory. I dated her for a while, but had to leave for a series of extended assignments abroad. After returning just 10 month later, I found her already engaged to somebody more enterprising than me :( Again, fortunes cut short just few centimetres away from the finish line. This bittersweet life. Now, when China is descending into mass madness again, I am risking to loose everything again.

zoomablemind 7y ago

orbifold 7y ago

I have puts on a bunch of stocks that target the 52 week low or 10-15% below that in ~3 months. So far that strategy has been wildly profitable. There have been tons of stocks that doubled or tripled in value in 2019, no way that is a realistic price in the next 2-3 years.