7 ms·

I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom. ...with that being said, I feel really worried

I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom. ...with that being said, I feel really worried about American economic stability long term now. Governors are closing restaurants and businesses leaving tons of folks out of work while providing minimal safety net coverage. Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause. If most Americans truly cannot afford a $500 surprise bill, we’re in for a very, very rough ride.

nostromo 7y ago
This is similar to 9/11 where politicians would act without thinking just to appear like they were doing something. Security theater was the norm for many years.
- anthm1988 7y ago
  Bitter about human lives being prioritized over your stocks? Poor little psychos.
- quadrangle 7y ago
  I hope you're not saying that measures which actually achieve more social distancing is somehow theater.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    If our response has been commensurate with the threat or an overreaction is definitely an open question. One we probably won't be able to answer definitively for a while.
    - yitianjian 7y ago
      I saw one really good comment - we'll know for sure if we under reacted, but we'll never know if we overreacted
      - nostromo 7y ago
        Oh I think it's very possible we'll know. "Remember in 2020 when everyone lost their jobs and their houses and their retirement because some octogenarians died from a bad cold?"
      - treis 7y ago
        This is the attitude that has me worried. It's CYA with a sprinkle of panic.
    - addicted 7y ago
      Which is exactly why it isn’t an overreaction. Thanks to the lack of testing we have no idea how bad this is. And due to the severity of the worst case scenarios and relatively high probability of them be happening, in the absence of more information, an overreaction is indeed prudent. That’s what people don’t get. Uncertainty often increases the need for more action, it doesn’t reduce it.
  - sershe 7y ago
    Omitting the rest of my argument (so that this can be hopefully kept more specific), arguing about this with people on HN actually made me think it's also part theater, just like airport security et al. Consider this merits aside, even if quarantine saves everyone and lack thereof kills everyone; we don't know that yet. If you are a mayor of Podunk, Nebrahoma, you have two choices. You can join in the quarantining with everyone else, and whatever damage that causes is not your fault. If someone literally comes to a town hall 2 years later to tell you they lost their job for 2 months, were evicted, got addicted to drugs and their life is ruined now, it will still be blamed on the virus and global economy and whatnot. Now, if you don't join, not only you won't achieve much due to the others' actions - if anything goes wrong you will be blamed for every dead grandma and your political career is over. There's really no incentive to not max out the quarantine theater, regardless of the relative merits of the measures taken.
- roywiggins 7y ago
  They've relaxed the no-liquids rule now! for hand sanitizer only.
  - jedberg 7y ago
    I've had a bottle of hand sanitizer in my bag for years and they've never once said anything. Either their security is so bad they've never caught it, or they've always been lax about sanitizer.
  - jfoutz 7y ago
    whew. Good thing isopropyl alcohol isn't explosive in vapor form or someone might make a bomb!
  - jfengel 7y ago
    Or at least, things claiming to be hand sanitizer. Which just makes the rule more absurd. If you've got a favorite shampoo, time to go looking for a nice large hand sanitizer bottle to transfer it to. (Though I wouldn't do that for contact lens saline, a thing I'd kinda like to bring on in large bottles, since the small ones are absurdly expensive and somewhat less available.)
    - sfritz 7y ago
      They technically allow large bottles of contact solution in carry-on because it's a medical necessity (https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/whatcanibring/items/contact-lens-solution https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/whatcanibring/...). I just keep it in my toiletries bag and they pull it out to run a quick test most of the time.
      - jfengel 7y ago
        That's good to know. Thank you.
Hasz 7y ago
Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.
- tomerbd 7y ago
  It's not so shallow, the stock market is still bubbly, these are the prices of mid 2017, when everyone said that the stock market is a bubble...
  - AznHisoka 7y ago
    To add further perspective: The S&P is just below where it was in December of 2018. Do you still have the same optimism about the US (and even the world) economy now than you did then? For me, the answer is a resounding No.
    - pathseeker 7y ago
      But companies have expanded since then. It doesn't take the same optimism to invest at the same price points as 2018 as it did in 2018 (even ignoring inflation).
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
  - mrlala 7y ago
    Yeah exactly.. people are saying it's the low today? Yeah good luck timing that. Maybe they are right.. but like you just said- these are prices just a couple years ago. The modern world has never seen what is going on, and the economic impacts are almost unfathomable. Claiming we are near a bottom just because it's dropped a lot is naive.
  - zoomablemind 7y ago
    That's what I'm seeing too. Even more, based on the mandated closings and limits on business, there'll be some future econ. damage to restore. How do we lately do that? Stimulus packages, bail-outs, QE. The very same thing that drove us to the [still] frothy highs and ticked up the external debt. It is a global issue, but at the end each economy will be affected locally. Let's just hope the human cost could be contained.
adrr 7y ago
Why catch a falling knife? I am actively shorting S&P to protect my other holdings. SPY is the largest ETF is now hard to borrow which is just crazy to think about.
- nouveaux 7y ago
  While you're not outright advocating a trading strategy here, what you're suggesting is dangerous if you're not talking about the downsides to shorting. Do not, I repeat, do not attempt a short without understanding all the risks. When you buy a stock for $10, the most you can lose when that stock goes to zero is $10. In theory, when you short a stock at $10, your loss is infinite as the stock goes up higher and higher. In practice, your broker will most likely force you to cover that short long before that. Just know that the loss can be big and fast. You should apply strategies you are most comfortable with and please do your research before attempting anything besides a long term buy and hold of index funds.
  - icedchai 7y ago
    I never short stock directly, but I do buy puts.
  - adrr 7y ago
    I am not advocating or suggesting anything, just stating what I am doing. My theoretical downside risk is that spy goes up 100x, my 401ks also go up 100x. I am trying minimize my risk at the expense I may give up some gains if there is bounce up. Index funds aren’t necessarily safe. Nikkei index has never recovered from its 90s high. NASDAQ took 15 years to recover. Know the risks.
    - wltprgm 7y ago
      As somebody else has said, put options are available. You must be really confident to short at all
      - pathseeker 7y ago
buryat 7y ago
> Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause. They also understand the effects of not closing right not in outlook of a deadly decease without available treatment.
rconti 7y ago
Every time I see this, I fail to grasp the logic. So you had money sitting on the sidelines for safety during boom times, and you elect to put it in a riskier asset class during a panic? I'm not saying this isn't likely the most profitable action, I just don't see how the principles are consistent with each other. The former is conservative; the latter is wildly speculative and risky.
- bduerst 7y ago
  Market has been hot so far this year, so the wise thing to do has been to slowly trim holdings for cash - i.e. up to 30% of your portfolio - so that you can buy on the dip. The correction has been a long time coming but the pandemic is making it even worse.
- adam_fallon_ 7y ago
  You're forgetting the fundamental rule of the stock market. Buy low, Sell high.
  - refurb 7y ago
    Exactly. The people that got in in 2008 made out like bandits. The people that wait until 2010 or later missed out on a lot of the gains.
    - akvadrako 7y ago
      The people that bought right before the crash also made out like bandits. It’s impossible to time the market, just buy if you have money.
      - _delirium 7y ago
        [deleted, got numbers wrong]
        refurb 7y ago
        If you invested when the S&P peaked (June 2007) and held until now, you'd have an annualized return of 6.8% (dividends reinvested), according to this calculator. If you look at June 2007 to Feb 2020 (missing the current dip), the return is 8.75%. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
koheripbal 7y ago
> Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause What do you suggest they do? Keep restaurants open? Also - I think they're hoping that people will still order restaurant food - just at home and have it delivered. ...might be a boon for Chinese restaurants, ironically.
- xnyan 7y ago
  UBI, tax credits, emergency direct to consumer low interest loans with suspended interest in the crises or all of the above.
  - addicted 7y ago
    It’s very difficult for state governments to do these things although the state governments re trying. Frankly they need the federal government to step in.
- bsanr2 7y ago
  Cash transfer from wealthy individuals and families via the IRS.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
bduerst 7y ago
That's exactly why it's not really that good of a time to buy just yet. There's a chance we have a long ways to go and you'll probably run out of cash if you keep buying down the slide. We bought some on the crash last week but now it's just a waiting game to see how low it's going to bottom out.
- thorwasdfasdf 7y ago
  that's what I did. bought a little at -3%, a little more at -6%, a lot more at -9%, lott lot more at -12%, by the time it hit -20%, I'm almost entirly in equities. Keep in mind, this is ONLY in my retirement accounts and I do have a 30 year investment horizon. I figure, it's better to get into equities than loose everything (in bonds and cash) once the eventual inflation taxes wipe everything out.
bobbyi_settv 7y ago
If you're going to keep putting money in, you might want to diversify rather than throwing it all at one index
everybodyknows 7y ago
Analyst sees 2000 SP possible with worst-case government policy responses: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-stock-market-plunge-shows-investors-are-fast-forwarding-the-2008-playbook-analyst-says-2020-03-16?mod=home-page https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-stock-market-p...
spamizbad 7y ago
Americans hate social welfare. A very reasonable recommendation of giving every adult household a fixed chunk of cash is being shot down because "But what about Bill gates!" -- There aren't that many rich people and also they pay plenty of taxes so... who cares if they get $1000 or whatever back from the government?
sershe 7y ago
I personally only have hope for incompetence at this point. If the virus can get totally out of control, perhaps it will become obvious that shutting down the economy and plunging the world into a recession/depression is misguided. I think it will do far more harm in life-years wasted as it is, but if it's also shown to be useless perhaps the current approach would be stopped.

nostromo 7y ago

This is similar to 9/11 where politicians would act without thinking just to appear like they were doing something. Security theater was the norm for many years.

anthm1988 7y ago
Bitter about human lives being prioritized over your stocks? Poor little psychos.
quadrangle 7y ago
I hope you're not saying that measures which actually achieve more social distancing is somehow theater.
- nostromo 7y ago
  If our response has been commensurate with the threat or an overreaction is definitely an open question. One we probably won't be able to answer definitively for a while.
  - yitianjian 7y ago
    I saw one really good comment - we'll know for sure if we under reacted, but we'll never know if we overreacted
    - nostromo 7y ago
      Oh I think it's very possible we'll know. "Remember in 2020 when everyone lost their jobs and their houses and their retirement because some octogenarians died from a bad cold?"
    - treis 7y ago
      This is the attitude that has me worried. It's CYA with a sprinkle of panic.
  - addicted 7y ago
    Which is exactly why it isn’t an overreaction. Thanks to the lack of testing we have no idea how bad this is. And due to the severity of the worst case scenarios and relatively high probability of them be happening, in the absence of more information, an overreaction is indeed prudent. That’s what people don’t get. Uncertainty often increases the need for more action, it doesn’t reduce it.
- sershe 7y ago
  Omitting the rest of my argument (so that this can be hopefully kept more specific), arguing about this with people on HN actually made me think it's also part theater, just like airport security et al. Consider this merits aside, even if quarantine saves everyone and lack thereof kills everyone; we don't know that yet. If you are a mayor of Podunk, Nebrahoma, you have two choices. You can join in the quarantining with everyone else, and whatever damage that causes is not your fault. If someone literally comes to a town hall 2 years later to tell you they lost their job for 2 months, were evicted, got addicted to drugs and their life is ruined now, it will still be blamed on the virus and global economy and whatnot. Now, if you don't join, not only you won't achieve much due to the others' actions - if anything goes wrong you will be blamed for every dead grandma and your political career is over. There's really no incentive to not max out the quarantine theater, regardless of the relative merits of the measures taken.
roywiggins 7y ago
They've relaxed the no-liquids rule now! for hand sanitizer only.
- jedberg 7y ago
  I've had a bottle of hand sanitizer in my bag for years and they've never once said anything. Either their security is so bad they've never caught it, or they've always been lax about sanitizer.
- jfoutz 7y ago
  whew. Good thing isopropyl alcohol isn't explosive in vapor form or someone might make a bomb!
- jfengel 7y ago
  Or at least, things claiming to be hand sanitizer. Which just makes the rule more absurd. If you've got a favorite shampoo, time to go looking for a nice large hand sanitizer bottle to transfer it to. (Though I wouldn't do that for contact lens saline, a thing I'd kinda like to bring on in large bottles, since the small ones are absurdly expensive and somewhat less available.)
  - sfritz 7y ago
    They technically allow large bottles of contact solution in carry-on because it's a medical necessity (https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/whatcanibring/items/contact-lens-solution https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/whatcanibring/...). I just keep it in my toiletries bag and they pull it out to run a quick test most of the time.
    - jfengel 7y ago
      That's good to know. Thank you.

Hasz 7y ago

Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.

tomerbd 7y ago
It's not so shallow, the stock market is still bubbly, these are the prices of mid 2017, when everyone said that the stock market is a bubble...
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  To add further perspective: The S&P is just below where it was in December of 2018. Do you still have the same optimism about the US (and even the world) economy now than you did then? For me, the answer is a resounding No.
  - pathseeker 7y ago
    But companies have expanded since then. It doesn't take the same optimism to invest at the same price points as 2018 as it did in 2018 (even ignoring inflation).
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- mrlala 7y ago
  Yeah exactly.. people are saying it's the low today? Yeah good luck timing that. Maybe they are right.. but like you just said- these are prices just a couple years ago. The modern world has never seen what is going on, and the economic impacts are almost unfathomable. Claiming we are near a bottom just because it's dropped a lot is naive.
- zoomablemind 7y ago
  That's what I'm seeing too. Even more, based on the mandated closings and limits on business, there'll be some future econ. damage to restore. How do we lately do that? Stimulus packages, bail-outs, QE. The very same thing that drove us to the [still] frothy highs and ticked up the external debt. It is a global issue, but at the end each economy will be affected locally. Let's just hope the human cost could be contained.

adrr 7y ago

Why catch a falling knife? I am actively shorting S&P to protect my other holdings. SPY is the largest ETF is now hard to borrow which is just crazy to think about.

nouveaux 7y ago
While you're not outright advocating a trading strategy here, what you're suggesting is dangerous if you're not talking about the downsides to shorting. Do not, I repeat, do not attempt a short without understanding all the risks. When you buy a stock for $10, the most you can lose when that stock goes to zero is $10. In theory, when you short a stock at $10, your loss is infinite as the stock goes up higher and higher. In practice, your broker will most likely force you to cover that short long before that. Just know that the loss can be big and fast. You should apply strategies you are most comfortable with and please do your research before attempting anything besides a long term buy and hold of index funds.
- icedchai 7y ago
  I never short stock directly, but I do buy puts.
- adrr 7y ago
  I am not advocating or suggesting anything, just stating what I am doing. My theoretical downside risk is that spy goes up 100x, my 401ks also go up 100x. I am trying minimize my risk at the expense I may give up some gains if there is bounce up. Index funds aren’t necessarily safe. Nikkei index has never recovered from its 90s high. NASDAQ took 15 years to recover. Know the risks.
  - wltprgm 7y ago
    As somebody else has said, put options are available. You must be really confident to short at all
    - pathseeker 7y ago

buryat 7y ago

> Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause. They also understand the effects of not closing right not in outlook of a deadly decease without available treatment.

rconti 7y ago

Every time I see this, I fail to grasp the logic. So you had money sitting on the sidelines for safety during boom times, and you elect to put it in a riskier asset class during a panic? I'm not saying this isn't likely the most profitable action, I just don't see how the principles are consistent with each other. The former is conservative; the latter is wildly speculative and risky.

bduerst 7y ago
Market has been hot so far this year, so the wise thing to do has been to slowly trim holdings for cash - i.e. up to 30% of your portfolio - so that you can buy on the dip. The correction has been a long time coming but the pandemic is making it even worse.
adam_fallon_ 7y ago
You're forgetting the fundamental rule of the stock market. Buy low, Sell high.
- refurb 7y ago
  Exactly. The people that got in in 2008 made out like bandits. The people that wait until 2010 or later missed out on a lot of the gains.
  - akvadrako 7y ago
    The people that bought right before the crash also made out like bandits. It’s impossible to time the market, just buy if you have money.
    - _delirium 7y ago
      [deleted, got numbers wrong]
      - refurb 7y ago
        If you invested when the S&P peaked (June 2007) and held until now, you'd have an annualized return of 6.8% (dividends reinvested), according to this calculator. If you look at June 2007 to Feb 2020 (missing the current dip), the return is 8.75%. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

koheripbal 7y ago

> Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause What do you suggest they do? Keep restaurants open? Also - I think they're hoping that people will still order restaurant food - just at home and have it delivered. ...might be a boon for Chinese restaurants, ironically.

xnyan 7y ago
UBI, tax credits, emergency direct to consumer low interest loans with suspended interest in the crises or all of the above.
- addicted 7y ago
  It’s very difficult for state governments to do these things although the state governments re trying. Frankly they need the federal government to step in.
bsanr2 7y ago
Cash transfer from wealthy individuals and families via the IRS.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

bduerst 7y ago

That's exactly why it's not really that good of a time to buy just yet. There's a chance we have a long ways to go and you'll probably run out of cash if you keep buying down the slide. We bought some on the crash last week but now it's just a waiting game to see how low it's going to bottom out.

thorwasdfasdf 7y ago
that's what I did. bought a little at -3%, a little more at -6%, a lot more at -9%, lott lot more at -12%, by the time it hit -20%, I'm almost entirly in equities. Keep in mind, this is ONLY in my retirement accounts and I do have a 30 year investment horizon. I figure, it's better to get into equities than loose everything (in bonds and cash) once the eventual inflation taxes wipe everything out.

bobbyi_settv 7y ago

If you're going to keep putting money in, you might want to diversify rather than throwing it all at one index

everybodyknows 7y ago

Analyst sees 2000 SP possible with worst-case government policy responses: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-stock-market-plunge-shows-investors-are-fast-forwarding-the-2008-playbook-analyst-says-2020-03-16?mod=home-page https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-stock-market-p...

spamizbad 7y ago

Americans hate social welfare. A very reasonable recommendation of giving every adult household a fixed chunk of cash is being shot down because "But what about Bill gates!" -- There aren't that many rich people and also they pay plenty of taxes so... who cares if they get $1000 or whatever back from the government?

sershe 7y ago

I personally only have hope for incompetence at this point. If the virus can get totally out of control, perhaps it will become obvious that shutting down the economy and plunging the world into a recession/depression is misguided. I think it will do far more harm in life-years wasted as it is, but if it's also shown to be useless perhaps the current approach would be stopped.