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I think your argument is largely orthogonal to mine. The virus is simply acting as a catalyst to expose the shaky underpinnings we already have. I think the imp

I think your argument is largely orthogonal to mine. The virus is simply acting as a catalyst to expose the shaky underpinnings we already have. I think the impact is going to be massive, but the virus is more like the snowball getting pushed off the top of the mountain, not the avalanche that ensues. If the middle class was on stable footing right now, lack of spending and consequently revenues wouldn't experience such a huge shock. It's a house of cards. If you think that speculation, debt, and interest rates aren't capable of causing a system wide collapse with far reaching effects, I'll go ahead and refer you to the 2008 crisis.

raiyu 7y ago
I'm actually arguing the opposite. The shaky foundation aside, if everything was valued appropriately, and there was no speculation, the impact of coronavirus alone would be enough to send the global economy into a recession due to lockdowns, change in consumer spending behavior, and the lack of income for million of people for even two months who are already living pay check to pay check.
- defterGoose 7y ago
  Fair enough. We're still in the early days of this, so getting down in the weeds on causation is a bit premature. Your first comment made me think you were saying people were glib for downplaying the effect the virus specifically will have on this recession (depression?). I tend to think that's shortsighted, when prior to any knowledge of the pandemic, there were obvious, gaping holes in the reasoning used in shaping our economy in the modern era. Bottom line is, it seems to me that when the world's richest nation has to outsource the making of anything tangible to the place where the outbreak started, and so much of our economy is based on services of questionable value, we're in for a world of hurt. You can't fight this war with military hardware and social media VC.

raiyu 7y ago

I'm actually arguing the opposite. The shaky foundation aside, if everything was valued appropriately, and there was no speculation, the impact of coronavirus alone would be enough to send the global economy into a recession due to lockdowns, change in consumer spending behavior, and the lack of income for million of people for even two months who are already living pay check to pay check.

defterGoose 7y ago
Fair enough. We're still in the early days of this, so getting down in the weeds on causation is a bit premature. Your first comment made me think you were saying people were glib for downplaying the effect the virus specifically will have on this recession (depression?). I tend to think that's shortsighted, when prior to any knowledge of the pandemic, there were obvious, gaping holes in the reasoning used in shaping our economy in the modern era. Bottom line is, it seems to me that when the world's richest nation has to outsource the making of anything tangible to the place where the outbreak started, and so much of our economy is based on services of questionable value, we're in for a world of hurt. You can't fight this war with military hardware and social media VC.