3 ms·

Was this the article you were reading with the 3600 days analysis? I just read it. Not sure what to make of it yet. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-t

Was this the article you were reading with the 3600 days analysis? I just read it. Not sure what to make of it yet. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea...

makomk 7y ago
The "Containment works" part seems questionable. In particular, South Korea almost certainly wasn't "tracking its first 30 cases very well, until patient 31 infected over 1000 others on a church congregation". Patient 31 didn't have any known source of exposure - she hadn't travelled abroad or had any contact with known cases, didn't even meet South Korea's criteria for testing, the most likely place she got Covid-19 is from the congregation. There was an entire thousand-person cluster that had slipped through the net and only got spotted because one person happened to get in a car accident and the doctors tested her on a hunch despite not meeting their testing criteria. If things had gone slightly differently, it's entirely possible that we'd be pointing at Italy as an example of successful containment that South Korea should have followed. They tested and contact-traced and thought they were doing quite well for the first 30 or so cases too, but reality hit them once it was far too late to do anything.
- roenxi 7y ago
  A very important part of the public discourse is how many tests can conducted and at what cost. For something with a long incubation period and potentially mild symptoms (ie, infected might not go to a hospital) only widespread statistical sampling will give a reliable picture of what is happening. When I heard countries talking about 'testing criteria' that involved travel - I think this was in mid/late February - it seemed inevitable that things were going to drift out of control. There was no way that would pick up the mild inbound cases that could spread to become clusters. It probably developed that way because actual monitoring programs were infeasible but it'd be nice to know.
- JamesBarney 7y ago
  Many countries seemed to operate with the assumption community spread wasn't happening. And due to this assumption didn't test for community spread.
- ArnoVW 7y ago
  It is my understanding that the church is sort of a cult, and it's followers hide their membership. This illustrates the challenge with tracing approaches: if people are not open, or not sufficiently aware of the consequences of their actions, it's very easy to miss infections.
  - neuronic 7y ago
    Today and yesterday I have seen countless people who just dont care. Viral pandemic currently causing society to shut down? Let's go meet in a cafe! And that's not even the, sorry, assholes at the supermarkets. It was insane today.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      The supermarket is not necessarily an optional trip. People have to eat, and if they're not eating in cafes, they're going to get their food at the market.
      - mirimir 7y ago
        And looking for TP and other paper products.
      - neuronic 7y ago
        For clarification, I went to the supermarket myself precisely because of the point you raised. My argument was more against the behavior that people display.
smoyer 7y ago
That is the article ... I don't think it had the "My back-of-the-envelope calculation is not a proper simulation, or a good model of what’s going on either. Don’t cite it as such" part at the bottom when I read it a couple days ago though.

makomk 7y ago

The "Containment works" part seems questionable. In particular, South Korea almost certainly wasn't "tracking its first 30 cases very well, until patient 31 infected over 1000 others on a church congregation". Patient 31 didn't have any known source of exposure - she hadn't travelled abroad or had any contact with known cases, didn't even meet South Korea's criteria for testing, the most likely place she got Covid-19 is from the congregation. There was an entire thousand-person cluster that had slipped through the net and only got spotted because one person happened to get in a car accident and the doctors tested her on a hunch despite not meeting their testing criteria. If things had gone slightly differently, it's entirely possible that we'd be pointing at Italy as an example of successful containment that South Korea should have followed. They tested and contact-traced and thought they were doing quite well for the first 30 or so cases too, but reality hit them once it was far too late to do anything.

roenxi 7y ago
A very important part of the public discourse is how many tests can conducted and at what cost. For something with a long incubation period and potentially mild symptoms (ie, infected might not go to a hospital) only widespread statistical sampling will give a reliable picture of what is happening. When I heard countries talking about 'testing criteria' that involved travel - I think this was in mid/late February - it seemed inevitable that things were going to drift out of control. There was no way that would pick up the mild inbound cases that could spread to become clusters. It probably developed that way because actual monitoring programs were infeasible but it'd be nice to know.
JamesBarney 7y ago
Many countries seemed to operate with the assumption community spread wasn't happening. And due to this assumption didn't test for community spread.
ArnoVW 7y ago
It is my understanding that the church is sort of a cult, and it's followers hide their membership. This illustrates the challenge with tracing approaches: if people are not open, or not sufficiently aware of the consequences of their actions, it's very easy to miss infections.
- neuronic 7y ago
  Today and yesterday I have seen countless people who just dont care. Viral pandemic currently causing society to shut down? Let's go meet in a cafe! And that's not even the, sorry, assholes at the supermarkets. It was insane today.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    The supermarket is not necessarily an optional trip. People have to eat, and if they're not eating in cafes, they're going to get their food at the market.
    - mirimir 7y ago
      And looking for TP and other paper products.
    - neuronic 7y ago
      For clarification, I went to the supermarket myself precisely because of the point you raised. My argument was more against the behavior that people display.

smoyer 7y ago

That is the article ... I don't think it had the "My back-of-the-envelope calculation is not a proper simulation, or a good model of what’s going on either. Don’t cite it as such" part at the bottom when I read it a couple days ago though.