4 ms·

I really don't see how anyone expects this to be over by June. Exponential growth at the current rate would have it burning through the global population by th

by ohazi 7y ago

I really don't see how anyone expects this to be over by June. Exponential growth at the current rate would have it burning through the global population by the end of June, but since exponential growth becomes logistic growth after an appreciable fraction of the population is infected, June is probably closer to the halfway point than the end date. And that's assuming zero curve flattening. The entire point of flattening the curve is to draw it out so that hospitals continue to function for longer. But this also makes the pandemic last longer. A vaccine isn't expected for over a year, and even then, I'd expect at least a few months of logistical difficulties getting enough manufactured, distributed, and administered, especially given the state that hospitals will likely be in.

Darkphibre 7y ago
Not sure why your score is so slow, you're spot-on. This is literally the global pandemic we've been scared of. It just came out of China instead of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rapzid 7y ago
Yes, this was what I had in mind when I made this comment. We would be screwed, IMHO, based on the current mitigation strategies around curve flattening that are not being communicated realistically to the public. The crop of shutdowns over the weekend were billed as 2-3 weeks.. Err, what? How are we even going to know what effect that's having without massive blanket testing? Then, nobody seems to believe anything less than 8 weeks is enough; and that's full-blown lock-down not fractions of half measures. But as you say, the just spreads it out. So what happens in 8 weeks when we still can't let up the restrictions because if we did that the number of cases would just explode again among the uninfected population? If we aren't turning the corner by June and getting the 40% of adults who can't afford $400 in an emergency back to work.. I'm sympathetic to the UKs strategy and hope the best for them.
- mobilefriendly 7y ago
  The 40%/$400 item comes from a fed survey about liquidity. It includes 17% of households with $100,000 in income. It is an outlier, other surveys put it the percentage at 20%.
  - eyegor 7y ago
    That's insane, I always assumed it was for much lower household incomes. I consider 100k to be upper middle class in the US.
- ohazi 7y ago
  > The crop of shutdowns over the weekend were billed as 2-3 weeks.. Err, what? Exactly. People seem to be mistaking the incubation period (~two weeks) for the length of time the pandemic will last (months at minimum). It's impossible to have a perfect quarantine, so if we were to all go back to normal after a month, the pandemic growth curve will pick up where it left off. Exiting the lockdown will need to be done super carefully to avoid this outcome. As far as I can tell, this is probably going to be the new normal until we have a vaccine.
  - mrec 7y ago
    Yup. And the worst-case scenario is infections peaking next winter to coincide with regular 'flu season. An Imperial College paper [1] out today predicts this under its most stringent suppression scenario; see the chart on page 10. [1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
usrusr 7y ago
The flattening strategies are like holding your breath, you can't do it forever. But vaccines are not the only way in which we get better at dealing with the virus. Long before we get a vaccine we will get better not only at treating Covid-19 (which will increase the effective medical capacity) but also at keeping the gears turning without too much viral spread. With a bit of luck and a few logistical winning moves we might be able to let this play out safely not that much later than current unrealistic expectations.

by ohazi 7y ago

Darkphibre 7y ago

Not sure why your score is so slow, you're spot-on. This is literally the global pandemic we've been scared of. It just came out of China instead of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rapzid 7y ago

Yes, this was what I had in mind when I made this comment. We would be screwed, IMHO, based on the current mitigation strategies around curve flattening that are not being communicated realistically to the public. The crop of shutdowns over the weekend were billed as 2-3 weeks.. Err, what? How are we even going to know what effect that's having without massive blanket testing? Then, nobody seems to believe anything less than 8 weeks is enough; and that's full-blown lock-down not fractions of half measures. But as you say, the just spreads it out. So what happens in 8 weeks when we still can't let up the restrictions because if we did that the number of cases would just explode again among the uninfected population? If we aren't turning the corner by June and getting the 40% of adults who can't afford $400 in an emergency back to work.. I'm sympathetic to the UKs strategy and hope the best for them.

mobilefriendly 7y ago
The 40%/$400 item comes from a fed survey about liquidity. It includes 17% of households with $100,000 in income. It is an outlier, other surveys put it the percentage at 20%.
- eyegor 7y ago
  That's insane, I always assumed it was for much lower household incomes. I consider 100k to be upper middle class in the US.
ohazi 7y ago
> The crop of shutdowns over the weekend were billed as 2-3 weeks.. Err, what? Exactly. People seem to be mistaking the incubation period (~two weeks) for the length of time the pandemic will last (months at minimum). It's impossible to have a perfect quarantine, so if we were to all go back to normal after a month, the pandemic growth curve will pick up where it left off. Exiting the lockdown will need to be done super carefully to avoid this outcome. As far as I can tell, this is probably going to be the new normal until we have a vaccine.
- mrec 7y ago
  Yup. And the worst-case scenario is infections peaking next winter to coincide with regular 'flu season. An Imperial College paper [1] out today predicts this under its most stringent suppression scenario; see the chart on page 10. [1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

usrusr 7y ago

The flattening strategies are like holding your breath, you can't do it forever. But vaccines are not the only way in which we get better at dealing with the virus. Long before we get a vaccine we will get better not only at treating Covid-19 (which will increase the effective medical capacity) but also at keeping the gears turning without too much viral spread. With a bit of luck and a few logistical winning moves we might be able to let this play out safely not that much later than current unrealistic expectations.