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I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=20 https://twitter.com/Mike

by aqme28 7y ago

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=20 https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught.

haunter 7y ago
Or just watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM
- ekidd 7y ago
  This is a really interesting video. I'm not sure how accurately it represents the situation on the ground in China, of course. But the video shows a society with temperature checks at every place of business, a location-tracking system, an isolation system, and a number of other precautions. It's a picture of a society on a war footing, certainly. But people aren't locked in their apartments, and the hospital system isn't collapsing under its own weight. So far, this is the most optimistic answer I've seen to "What comes after total lockdown but before a vaccine?"
  - prewett 7y ago
    People actually were locked in their apartment compounds for about a month, at least in Beijing.
- physicles 7y ago
  I live in Beijing and came back early Feb after the new year holiday. We’re doing all that stuff too, even the single use tissue in the elevators. The day after I got back we found out we had a case of covid-19 in our apartment block, so we were one of the first to get restricted entry/exit — each unit gets 2 cards and you have to present it when you enter or leave through the single open gate. I did 2 weeks going outside just twice to buy food, then slowly relaxed a bit. Many of my chinese friends are still basically not going out at all. Now’s an exciting time for China because we’re at basically zero new cases in the country (had 4 new ones in Hubei yesterday, the rest were all retournees from outside the country). So since yesterday, it’s mandatory hotel quarantine for everyone who enters the country. Really getting worried for my family and friends in the states though. Gonna have some long talks about how to prepare.
  - markhahn 7y ago
    It's not clear to me whether the no-new-cases in China is real, temporary or biased sampling. Lockdown is a temporary measure to prevent any new infections is betting that something will change (vaccine, season-related drop in R0). It can't go on forever without destroying the economy. Do you think it's reasonable to trust reports of no new cases? Is the sense that is just "no new symptomatic cases that get reported officially", or really none? I find it difficult to believe that there can be no new cases in a vast country where almost everyone is susceptible, but perhaps I underestimate the degree of lockdown.
smacktoward 7y ago
> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.
- smoyer 7y ago
  I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.
  - dharmab 7y ago
    Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.
    - smoyer 7y ago
      Yes ... it used the current percentage of those who get it and require hospital stays and those who need the IC along with the average number of days that they stay. Unfortunately, 70% of our capacity was full before the Coronavirus arrived so there's simply not that much capacity.
    - bosie 7y ago
      a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. 80% infected within 1 year and ~10% of those require hospitalization. usa: 350m => 80% is 280M => ~30 million hospital/ICU beds for 2-4 weeks. this is on top of regular/ongoing hospitalisation. hence it hitting any african country or india with the same force would be devastating.
Bombthecat 7y ago
So, the uk approach? Let god sort them out?
- kordlessagain 7y ago
  Sorry, I have to go get tea.
duxup 7y ago
The total lockdown system seems almost untenable as it is. Let's say China has managed to isolate the virus to some pockets... that means the rest of China is not exposed and vulnerable for who knows how long. The sheer amount of effort to prevent what seems like the inevitable might be wasted effort. That's not to dismiss the casualties or the impact of a widespread outbreak or the desire to SLOW it. But man do you spend forever and all that effort isolating A from B & C ... and then B from A ... until there are huge amounts of vaccine available (late fall?)
craftyguy 7y ago
> admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. Oh please. Based on what we know, it's much more likely to not be an 'onslaught.' But hey, if we want to wreck the economy and drive mass hysteria for something that is super not fatal for the vast majority of people, then let's go!
- trianglem 7y ago
  Yeah but if you apply what needle said about 70% of the population getting it and 500K deaths in Germany over 2 years, that’s close to 2 million deaths from the disease. A million deaths a year is horrendous.
lokedhs 7y ago
Singapore is doing the same. At first I thought their response was a bit excessive with the temperature checks in every office building, etc However, even though the borders are now heavily restricted, inside the country most things goes on as normal. There are fewer people out, but I'm still having trouble finding parking at the mall for example. Of course this may not last, and at some point we might see a huge increase in the number of cases, but the total daily new cases has been low until now. I'd take that an indicator that the strategy works, at least as a tool to slow down the spread.

by aqme28 7y ago

haunter 7y ago

Or just watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

ekidd 7y ago
This is a really interesting video. I'm not sure how accurately it represents the situation on the ground in China, of course. But the video shows a society with temperature checks at every place of business, a location-tracking system, an isolation system, and a number of other precautions. It's a picture of a society on a war footing, certainly. But people aren't locked in their apartments, and the hospital system isn't collapsing under its own weight. So far, this is the most optimistic answer I've seen to "What comes after total lockdown but before a vaccine?"
- prewett 7y ago
  People actually were locked in their apartment compounds for about a month, at least in Beijing.
physicles 7y ago
I live in Beijing and came back early Feb after the new year holiday. We’re doing all that stuff too, even the single use tissue in the elevators. The day after I got back we found out we had a case of covid-19 in our apartment block, so we were one of the first to get restricted entry/exit — each unit gets 2 cards and you have to present it when you enter or leave through the single open gate. I did 2 weeks going outside just twice to buy food, then slowly relaxed a bit. Many of my chinese friends are still basically not going out at all. Now’s an exciting time for China because we’re at basically zero new cases in the country (had 4 new ones in Hubei yesterday, the rest were all retournees from outside the country). So since yesterday, it’s mandatory hotel quarantine for everyone who enters the country. Really getting worried for my family and friends in the states though. Gonna have some long talks about how to prepare.
- markhahn 7y ago
  It's not clear to me whether the no-new-cases in China is real, temporary or biased sampling. Lockdown is a temporary measure to prevent any new infections is betting that something will change (vaccine, season-related drop in R0). It can't go on forever without destroying the economy. Do you think it's reasonable to trust reports of no new cases? Is the sense that is just "no new symptomatic cases that get reported officially", or really none? I find it difficult to believe that there can be no new cases in a vast country where almost everyone is susceptible, but perhaps I underestimate the degree of lockdown.

smacktoward 7y ago

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

smoyer 7y ago
I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.
- dharmab 7y ago
  Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.
  - smoyer 7y ago
    Yes ... it used the current percentage of those who get it and require hospital stays and those who need the IC along with the average number of days that they stay. Unfortunately, 70% of our capacity was full before the Coronavirus arrived so there's simply not that much capacity.
  - bosie 7y ago
    a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. 80% infected within 1 year and ~10% of those require hospitalization. usa: 350m => 80% is 280M => ~30 million hospital/ICU beds for 2-4 weeks. this is on top of regular/ongoing hospitalisation. hence it hitting any african country or india with the same force would be devastating.

Bombthecat 7y ago

So, the uk approach? Let god sort them out?

kordlessagain 7y ago
Sorry, I have to go get tea.

duxup 7y ago

The total lockdown system seems almost untenable as it is. Let's say China has managed to isolate the virus to some pockets... that means the rest of China is not exposed and vulnerable for who knows how long. The sheer amount of effort to prevent what seems like the inevitable might be wasted effort. That's not to dismiss the casualties or the impact of a widespread outbreak or the desire to SLOW it. But man do you spend forever and all that effort isolating A from B & C ... and then B from A ... until there are huge amounts of vaccine available (late fall?)

craftyguy 7y ago

> admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. Oh please. Based on what we know, it's much more likely to not be an 'onslaught.' But hey, if we want to wreck the economy and drive mass hysteria for something that is super not fatal for the vast majority of people, then let's go!

trianglem 7y ago
Yeah but if you apply what needle said about 70% of the population getting it and 500K deaths in Germany over 2 years, that’s close to 2 million deaths from the disease. A million deaths a year is horrendous.

lokedhs 7y ago

Singapore is doing the same. At first I thought their response was a bit excessive with the temperature checks in every office building, etc However, even though the borders are now heavily restricted, inside the country most things goes on as normal. There are fewer people out, but I'm still having trouble finding parking at the mall for example. Of course this may not last, and at some point we might see a huge increase in the number of cases, but the total daily new cases has been low until now. I'd take that an indicator that the strategy works, at least as a tool to slow down the spread.