4 ms·

> I just don't see how these closures aren't going to ripple through the global economy. I can see it not rippling if (a) a vaccine comes out in time, or (b) p

> I just don't see how these closures aren't going to ripple through the global economy. I can see it not rippling if (a) a vaccine comes out in time, or (b) people just give up and work anyway, accepting coronavirus as a risk of life. Unlike sacrificing everything for the sake of not getting coronavirus, that can actually go on indefinitely.

swiley 7y ago
It sounds a little too serious for b. If you develop symptoms you may need serious medical attention (intubation) in order to survive regardless of age. Wether or not you develop symptoms you can develop serious organ damage that results in life long chronic health problems (due to damage to lungs, kidneys and testes.) It sounds to me like this virus is in fact much more serious than most people thought even with the hype.
- allovernow 7y ago
  I didn't want to write it out again but you took the words out of my mouth. All of the worst [pending] peer reviewer papers are gradually being confirmed, it seems. The news has been getting consistently worse for literally two months now and we now have at least a dozen countries on lockdown, and growing.
- mehrdadn 7y ago
  Whether or not it's too serious for b depends on the alternatives. When the alternative is you don't make any money or have anything to eat, coronavirus might seem like the inevitable alternative, especially for younger/healthier folks.
standardUser 7y ago
"Unlike sacrificing everything for the sake of not getting coronavirus, that can actually go on indefinitely." Not even remotely true. If people go back to normal (against the advice from every agency with experience handling communicable diseases) the disease will spread at an exponential rate. Healthcare systems across the globe will be overwhelmed (like Italy and China but vastly worse) and people start suffering and dying from curable illnesses due to lack of capacity. Then, once people start dying by thousands, everyone will quarantine themselves anyway. There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple.
- mehrdadn 7y ago
  > There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple. We can argue (b), but did you just ignore my (a)? How would that ripple like this?
  - standardUser 7y ago
    Can a vaccine be released in such a short timeframe? I don't think anyone is suggesting a vaccine can be released in less than several months. But it is suggested that the pandemic itself could subside within that timeframe.
    - DeonPenny 7y ago
      The minimum amount a vaccine has ever been made is over a year. A vaccine just gives you the virus but in a damaged state.
  - gus_massa 7y ago
    The vaccine will take like 1 year to test and be sure that it is effective and that it is safe and cause no nasty side effects. So for 2020, let's ignore (a).
    - allovernow 7y ago
      There is a high probability that at least many candidate vaccines could have induce a deadly autoimmune reaction upon exposure to the virus, because of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), which is shared by other coronaviruses like the previous SARS. At least one paper I read trialing multiple vaccine candidates on animals reported failures in all cases due to autoimmune damage to lung tissue. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X14013321 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X1...
    - jeremyjh 7y ago
      I don't know why this is being downvoted. A year is actually a fairly aggressive schedule. Of course there may be certain elected officials who will push to certify anything at all before November but nothing will be proven safe in that little time.
DeonPenny 7y ago
vaccine take a year more more to develop people should stop saying this. Whats gonna happen is the same thing that will happen with chickenpox. Everyone will get it and you'll be ok unless you have a underlining condition

swiley 7y ago

It sounds a little too serious for b. If you develop symptoms you may need serious medical attention (intubation) in order to survive regardless of age. Wether or not you develop symptoms you can develop serious organ damage that results in life long chronic health problems (due to damage to lungs, kidneys and testes.) It sounds to me like this virus is in fact much more serious than most people thought even with the hype.

allovernow 7y ago
I didn't want to write it out again but you took the words out of my mouth. All of the worst [pending] peer reviewer papers are gradually being confirmed, it seems. The news has been getting consistently worse for literally two months now and we now have at least a dozen countries on lockdown, and growing.
mehrdadn 7y ago
Whether or not it's too serious for b depends on the alternatives. When the alternative is you don't make any money or have anything to eat, coronavirus might seem like the inevitable alternative, especially for younger/healthier folks.

standardUser 7y ago

"Unlike sacrificing everything for the sake of not getting coronavirus, that can actually go on indefinitely." Not even remotely true. If people go back to normal (against the advice from every agency with experience handling communicable diseases) the disease will spread at an exponential rate. Healthcare systems across the globe will be overwhelmed (like Italy and China but vastly worse) and people start suffering and dying from curable illnesses due to lack of capacity. Then, once people start dying by thousands, everyone will quarantine themselves anyway. There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple.

mehrdadn 7y ago
> There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple. We can argue (b), but did you just ignore my (a)? How would that ripple like this?
- standardUser 7y ago
  Can a vaccine be released in such a short timeframe? I don't think anyone is suggesting a vaccine can be released in less than several months. But it is suggested that the pandemic itself could subside within that timeframe.
  - DeonPenny 7y ago
    The minimum amount a vaccine has ever been made is over a year. A vaccine just gives you the virus but in a damaged state.
- gus_massa 7y ago
  The vaccine will take like 1 year to test and be sure that it is effective and that it is safe and cause no nasty side effects. So for 2020, let's ignore (a).
  - allovernow 7y ago
    There is a high probability that at least many candidate vaccines could have induce a deadly autoimmune reaction upon exposure to the virus, because of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), which is shared by other coronaviruses like the previous SARS. At least one paper I read trialing multiple vaccine candidates on animals reported failures in all cases due to autoimmune damage to lung tissue. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X14013321 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X1...
  - jeremyjh 7y ago
    I don't know why this is being downvoted. A year is actually a fairly aggressive schedule. Of course there may be certain elected officials who will push to certify anything at all before November but nothing will be proven safe in that little time.

DeonPenny 7y ago

vaccine take a year more more to develop people should stop saying this. Whats gonna happen is the same thing that will happen with chickenpox. Everyone will get it and you'll be ok unless you have a underlining condition