5 ms·

None of those are primary events. Covid-19 is responsible for causing all of those changes. Compare that to 2008 where the sub prime mortgage crisis was the pri

by sxg 7y ago

None of those are primary events. Covid-19 is responsible for causing all of those changes. Compare that to 2008 where the sub prime mortgage crisis was the primary event.

travisjungroth 7y ago
So, because they have a shared underlying cause they don't count? There seems to be this weird idea floating around that because this financial crisis was triggered by events in the real economy (instead of a financial crisis blowing up the real economy, like normal) it somehow doesn't count or it's overblown or something. Just look at the rest of the sentence I quoted: "and I think we know roughly how bad this can and will get and it is not financial crisis worthy." Airline stocks have tanked because way less people are flying. Movie theater stocks have tanked because way less people are going to movies. This financial crisis seems to be firmly rooted in real world events. These companies are truly worth a lot less than they were a month ago.
- sxg 7y ago
  I'm not suggesting that this financial crisis doesn't count or is overblown. It is real, and it is happening. I agree that airlines and movie theaters are worth less today than they were a few weeks ago. What I'm saying is that this financial crisis has a clear, identifiable cause: covid-19. When covid-19 blows over (which it will in a few months time), the market will recover. Without covid-19, travel bans will be lifted and people will fly again. There's no reason to believe people are done with airlines forever. Same with movie theaters and the restaurant industry. My argument is that the underlying primary cause of the financial crisis matters because it determines the path to recovery. I fully expect covid-19 to disappear in a few months (as it has in China and South Korea), and I fully expect the market to recover in the months afterward.

5 ms·

None of those are primary events. Covid-19 is responsible for causing all of those changes. Compare that to 2008 where the sub prime mortgage crisis was the pri

by sxg 7y ago

None of those are primary events. Covid-19 is responsible for causing all of those changes. Compare that to 2008 where the sub prime mortgage crisis was the primary event.

travisjungroth 7y ago
So, because they have a shared underlying cause they don't count? There seems to be this weird idea floating around that because this financial crisis was triggered by events in the real economy (instead of a financial crisis blowing up the real economy, like normal) it somehow doesn't count or it's overblown or something. Just look at the rest of the sentence I quoted: "and I think we know roughly how bad this can and will get and it is not financial crisis worthy." Airline stocks have tanked because way less people are flying. Movie theater stocks have tanked because way less people are going to movies. This financial crisis seems to be firmly rooted in real world events. These companies are truly worth a lot less than they were a month ago.
- sxg 7y ago
  I'm not suggesting that this financial crisis doesn't count or is overblown. It is real, and it is happening. I agree that airlines and movie theaters are worth less today than they were a few weeks ago. What I'm saying is that this financial crisis has a clear, identifiable cause: covid-19. When covid-19 blows over (which it will in a few months time), the market will recover. Without covid-19, travel bans will be lifted and people will fly again. There's no reason to believe people are done with airlines forever. Same with movie theaters and the restaurant industry. My argument is that the underlying primary cause of the financial crisis matters because it determines the path to recovery. I fully expect covid-19 to disappear in a few months (as it has in China and South Korea), and I fully expect the market to recover in the months afterward.