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It's disingenuous to compare COVID-19 death with traffic death in Dr. Lin's presentation. Here are the facts: - The 30k U.S. traffic death count is for the EN
by devy 7y ago
It's disingenuous to compare COVID-19 death with traffic death in Dr. Lin's presentation.
Here are the facts:
- The 30k U.S. traffic death count is for the ENTIRE YEAR. The 3k death in Wuhun happened in a matter of weeks(6-8 weeks).
- Given that U.S.'s inaction and squandered 2 months of lead time, we could see death count to be in the order of hundreds of thousands in U.S. alone.[1] This is NOT an estimate based on mathematical model, this is the estimate based on clinical data so far and virus's exponential growth rate. There isn't a national lock-down yet although some states are acting quickly, still 2 month late.
- Mass majority of the vehicular deaths are preventable because most of them are due to human error. COVID-19 is NOT preventable RIGHT NOW. Vaccines are at least 1-1.5 years away, no matter how fast track you spin it.
- Asymptomatic and family based clustering transmissions are making the lock-down less effective.
- We will get through this nightmare pandemic outbreak. But the economic depression is real and ongoing. Nobody knows what the long term effect could be.
[1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...
- natalyarostova 7y agoI didn’t get the impression he was comparing them. Just providing reference points. He’s pretty clear that this is bad.
- devy 7y agoThe closest outbreak to COVID-19 is probably the 1918 Spanish flu (forward-looking statement). And we are going to have 100% likelihood that this year's COVID-19 death count is going to surpass 30k people globally.
- majos 7y ago> This is NOT an estimate based on mathematical model, this is the estimate based on clinical data so far and virus's exponential growth rate. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but an exponential growth rate is a mathematical model. We’re extrapolating the current curve into the future, that’s a model.