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I've been going back and forth on this for a week. On one hand we've been clearly headed towards a Minsky Moment / Big Debt Crisis for years. On the other hand,
by kaycebasques 7y ago
I've been going back and forth on this for a week. On one hand we've been clearly headed towards a Minsky Moment / Big Debt Crisis for years. On the other hand, the impact of COVID-19 on the real economy is unprecedented. A sudden, global halting of all in-person social interaction??? Wow.
- AnimalMuppet 7y agoIt doesn't have to be either/or. It can be both/and. Things were unsustainable; eventually something would push it over the edge. And the something was enormous and unprecedented, something that could have pushed even a stable market into a recession.
- kshacker 7y agoIf we could actually do a full halt for 2 weeks, we will be back to normal in another 2. The problem is that some are doing it, some are not. And then they are doing it on different schedules.
- vecter 7y agoThis is definitely false. Many companies are going to have layoffs. Supply chains will become disrupted. You can't just hire those people in two weeks and get production running up to 100% right away. If we actually go into a recession due to this (if we're not already), then people won't be willing to spend as much money right away either.
- sershe 7y agoI would really prefer that people were more pedantic about this. The impact of COVID-19 is presently not even a rounding error. The impact of the measures taken to try to prevent the first impact from happening is enormous.