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Airlines couldn’t possibly prepare for this situation. It’s a black swan event which has no precedence. We are talking about more or less complete shut down of

Airlines couldn’t possibly prepare for this situation. It’s a black swan event which has no precedence. We are talking about more or less complete shut down of passenger flights, going from a time of prosperity and ever increasing demand which require fleet and personnel investment, into a complete halt of the industry (save for cargo). This is like asking Google to prepare for operation of their datacenters for three months without electricity. It’s so unthinkable in a modern society that you simply can’t plan and set aside resources for that.

addicted 7y ago
Airlines have experienced at least 3 “black swan” events in the last 2 decades (more if you wanna count extreme oil price increases). Sure, they couldn’t have predicted this particular black swan event (although the idea that a pandemic couldn’t be resisted is kinda ridiculous considering people have been predicting one for long enough, to the point the previous US administration had set up a ton of infrastructure to prepare and plan for such a situation). But at this point it’s obvious airlines are gonna be affected by some black swan event or the other every 10 years or so.
- flyinglizard 7y ago
  Which event came close to this? 9/11 lasted days. The 2008 recession? Sure people slowed down their flights but it was not a complete closure. The stocks took a massive hit, but flights continued. Judging by what's happening around the world, we are going to see flight volume dropping by 90%, for months.
  - petre 7y ago
    The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Two weeks of air disruptions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallajökull https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjalla... The current crisis is going to be worse. I'd say one month bare minimum. We have a flight scheduled a month from now, probably getting cancelled. Ryanair has currently grounded its fleet.

addicted 7y ago

Airlines have experienced at least 3 “black swan” events in the last 2 decades (more if you wanna count extreme oil price increases). Sure, they couldn’t have predicted this particular black swan event (although the idea that a pandemic couldn’t be resisted is kinda ridiculous considering people have been predicting one for long enough, to the point the previous US administration had set up a ton of infrastructure to prepare and plan for such a situation). But at this point it’s obvious airlines are gonna be affected by some black swan event or the other every 10 years or so.

flyinglizard 7y ago
Which event came close to this? 9/11 lasted days. The 2008 recession? Sure people slowed down their flights but it was not a complete closure. The stocks took a massive hit, but flights continued. Judging by what's happening around the world, we are going to see flight volume dropping by 90%, for months.
- petre 7y ago
  The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Two weeks of air disruptions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallajökull https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjalla... The current crisis is going to be worse. I'd say one month bare minimum. We have a flight scheduled a month from now, probably getting cancelled. Ryanair has currently grounded its fleet.