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Look at the graphs on "our world in data": https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case https://ourworldindata.org/coronav
by raphlinus 7y ago
Look at the graphs on "our world in data": https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-th...
Based on this, 3 days does indeed look like the doubling time. However, be careful when interpreting this data, as it conflates increases in testing coverage with actual viral spread. If you look at countries with excellent testing, such as South Korea, it was still in the 3 day range, though today they thankfully have transmission comparatively under control.
- JamesBarney 7y agoThanks for linking to that graph. That's a great resource! At 3 days that changes both how much we have to slow it down, and how quickly we need to start slowing it down. Not to mention that if it's 15 days from infection to diagnosis then that's 5 doubling times. So by the time we realize we didn't do enough it's way too late to avoid a complete catastrophe.
- raphlinus 7y agoI don't think 15 days is a good number for infection to diagnosis, though obviously it depends on how rapidly we can accurately diagnose cases. (In the subsection of the population without access to healthcare, it's a divide by zero error). I'm not qualified enough to provide an estimate myself, but happy to link to an authoritative review: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19 https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-c... (see "Incubation period" for input on what you're looking for)
- JamesBarney 7y agoYou're right I misread PDF.