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Epidemic Calculator
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- kangnkodos 7y agoI would also like to see the following features: - Enter the number of respirators in a country. - Enter two fatality rates, with and without respirators. Also, I don't understand why the peak number of hospitalizations would be so sensitive to the initial number of infections. That doesn't look right to me.
- gabrielgoh 7y agogood questions! (author here) I've had a hard time trying to find hard figures on these numbers, and am trying to steer as much from speculation as possible. Your second observation is a very good one. This is true, e.g. for the default intervention. Adding initial infections has a similar effect to waiting, and delaying an intervention can have a tremendous effect (at least according to the model) on the course of the epidemic
- mNovak 7y agoVery cool! Noticed first Death and Peak also appear to be sliders, a bit unclear how these are supposed to be used.
- XaspR8d 7y agoNot sure the UI is working the same for me -- dragging anywhere along the time axis, including the first death and hospitalization peak waypoints, scales the amount of time shown on the graph. It doesn't appear to affect the model.
- gabrielgoh 7y ago(author here) - that is correct, those aren't sliders, just waypoints
- oroul 7y agoGreat tool, what did you build this with?
- pxtail 7y agoPage source says - svelte
- nicpottier 7y agoSuper well done. Have you shared this with epidemiologists who have validated it? Hard to avoid some bugs no matter how careful you are! What are the default values representing out of curiosity? Seems the biggest bit here is the pause to intervention and how big your R0 is after intervention. Anything over 1 for the US population and it seems to get ugly fast.
- nicpottier 7y agoAlso though this may be falling into speculation but trying to account for total # of beds and peak hospitalization and adjusting outcomes when in that zone may add another important element when trying to reason about this.
- gabrielgoh 7y ago(author here) default values are the best guesses for the parameters of the novel coronavirus based on my reading of the literature
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- CSSer 7y agoThis is fantastic! It would be nice to have a select input with countries that would update the population input based on the country selected. e.g. "United States of America - 327,000,000". It also may be nice to have a text input along with the range such that you can choose to either manually key in a value or use the range.
- tmoertel 7y agoRelated SIR model: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics from the Predictive Healthcare team at Penn Medicine (press release): http://predictivehealthcare.pennmedicine.org/2020/03/14/accouncing-chime.html http://predictivehealthcare.pennmedicine.org/2020/03/14/acco... This one was made for hospital administrators and also estimates loads on their rooms and ventilators.
- mattsouth 7y agoI would consider entering this to the scipy plotting comp: https://forms.gle/SrexmkDwiAmDc7ej7 https://forms.gle/SrexmkDwiAmDc7ej7