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Just on deaths alone, which is a 2 week lagging indicator, the count as of 2 weeks ago was several tens of thousands of cases. Where are you getting your numbe
by gambler 7y ago
Just on deaths alone, which is a 2 week lagging indicator, the count as of 2 weeks ago was several tens of thousands of cases.
Where are you getting your numbers?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Also, why do you think deaths are lagging by 2 weeks? Infection number - sure. Most people don't get tested. But when someone dies, it seems reasonable to assume it gets notices and reported.
- Danieru 7y agoIndeed, deaths get reported that's why the death count is the most reliable. Deaths are a lagging indicator of total infection cases because it takes time for an infection to cause death. Thus if you want to derive infections from deaths you can, but not a current estimate. The US has vastly under tested, so if you want to derive an estimate of current totals you can only go based on lagging indicators. Likewise you need to then forward project an exponential. None of this suggest accuracy, but it will be closer to the ground truth than testing derived numbers are now.