3 ms·

The data is so strange. Malaysia has had an outbreak since well before Italy, with zero deaths so far. Vietnam and Thailand are similar. I'm beginning to suspec

The data is so strange. Malaysia has had an outbreak since well before Italy, with zero deaths so far. Vietnam and Thailand are similar. I'm beginning to suspect that sunshine/vitamin D is a good proxy for how hard-hit different regions are and the huge discrepancy. It's an awfully optimistic theory, since it suggests things will start to get better in the northern hemisphere regardless of intervention and since everyone can individually supplement with Vitamin D immediately. Some data collected here, I welcome any additions or good counterexamples, but we won't have much more for a few weeks when we can better observe countries that are "behind" Italy, like Spain: https://simonsarris.com/sunlight https://simonsarris.com/sunlight

gambler 7y ago
Is Italian population deficient in vitamin D compared to those other countries you mentioned?
- simonsarris 7y ago
  Did you look at the sunshine data? Bergamo has low sunshine in Feb and March comparatively. Places hard hit: * Wuhan: 100 (In Feb) * Paris: 79-129 (Feb-March, North France harder it by # of cases, cannot find death info) * Bergamo Italy: 100-150 (Feb-March average) * Seattle WA: 100-150 (Feb-March) * Iran sunshine varies a lot by locale. But some places like Rasht, its very low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April Places less hard hit: * Bangkok 250-275 (Feb-March) * Kuala Lumpur 185, 192, 208 (Jan Feb March) * Ho Chi Minh City, 272 (March) * Seoul: 175-200 (Feb-March) South Korea contained it of course, but their lethality numbers are also lower, and its the lethality that I find odd in all this.
  - gambler 7y ago
    Thank you for clarification. Yeah, the numbers look interesting.
  - haunter 7y ago
    Following this pattern we should see similar numbers all over Europe, heck significantly more in the nordic countries but that's not the case.
    - simonsarris 7y ago
      The Nord countries are "days behind" Italy. So far we can only study countries which are days ahead, which is why Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are compelling. In the coming month we can observe the Nordic countries, but as April approaches their sunshine gets better. Also: Latitude is not enough to determine sunshine, you have to go look up the monthly data. For Rasht in Iran for example, its very low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April. This city is south of say, Lisbon, but Lisbon has far more sunshine hours.
    - gambler 7y ago
      heck significantly more in the nordic countries I think some of them instituted programs to fix vitamin D deficiency a while ago: https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-t... Damn, one would think in our data-crazy world stats like vitamin D deficiency by country would be one search away. But in reality, it's pretty hard to find and even harder to verify.
pmoriarty 7y ago
Possible explanations for the discrepancies: 1 - A difference in the amount or quality of testing. If you don't test enough, you won't really know how many cases you have. If the tests that are performed are unreliable, that can also lead you to a false sense of security. 2 - Deaths from the disease could be miscategorised as deaths from pneumonia, the flu, or some other illness. This goes hand-in-hand with lack of testing. 3 - There is some difference in the location that might impact the disease. For instance, China has a lot of air pollution, which could impact lung function, and may in turn increase the severity of COVID-19 symptoms, which primarily impact breathing by damaging the lungs. Hot and humid climates also seem to be inhospitable to the virus, though it is hot in Iran now and they're very hard hit. Widespread use of air conditioning might negate the effects of outside temperature and humidity, however. 4 - There could be population differences. This has not been studied yet, but in theory some people may be less susceptible to the disease because of genetic factors. 5 - Behavioral differences could impact this disease. Doing lots of testing, tracking down all the contacts of each infected individual and isolating them, having the population self-isolate and avoid gatherings can make a huge difference. Conversely, a population and government which ignore this outbreak or pretend it's not serious, and continue going on with their life as usual is a recipe for disaster. 6 - Medical preparedness: having a lot of excess ICU capacity, ventilators, personal protection equipment, and trained (and healthy, and not overworked) medical staff in hospitals.

gambler 7y ago

Is Italian population deficient in vitamin D compared to those other countries you mentioned?

simonsarris 7y ago
Did you look at the sunshine data? Bergamo has low sunshine in Feb and March comparatively. Places hard hit: * Wuhan: 100 (In Feb) * Paris: 79-129 (Feb-March, North France harder it by # of cases, cannot find death info) * Bergamo Italy: 100-150 (Feb-March average) * Seattle WA: 100-150 (Feb-March) * Iran sunshine varies a lot by locale. But some places like Rasht, its very low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April Places less hard hit: * Bangkok 250-275 (Feb-March) * Kuala Lumpur 185, 192, 208 (Jan Feb March) * Ho Chi Minh City, 272 (March) * Seoul: 175-200 (Feb-March) South Korea contained it of course, but their lethality numbers are also lower, and its the lethality that I find odd in all this.
- gambler 7y ago
  Thank you for clarification. Yeah, the numbers look interesting.
- haunter 7y ago
  Following this pattern we should see similar numbers all over Europe, heck significantly more in the nordic countries but that's not the case.
  - simonsarris 7y ago
    The Nord countries are "days behind" Italy. So far we can only study countries which are days ahead, which is why Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are compelling. In the coming month we can observe the Nordic countries, but as April approaches their sunshine gets better. Also: Latitude is not enough to determine sunshine, you have to go look up the monthly data. For Rasht in Iran for example, its very low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April. This city is south of say, Lisbon, but Lisbon has far more sunshine hours.
  - gambler 7y ago
    heck significantly more in the nordic countries I think some of them instituted programs to fix vitamin D deficiency a while ago: https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-t... Damn, one would think in our data-crazy world stats like vitamin D deficiency by country would be one search away. But in reality, it's pretty hard to find and even harder to verify.

pmoriarty 7y ago

Possible explanations for the discrepancies: 1 - A difference in the amount or quality of testing. If you don't test enough, you won't really know how many cases you have. If the tests that are performed are unreliable, that can also lead you to a false sense of security. 2 - Deaths from the disease could be miscategorised as deaths from pneumonia, the flu, or some other illness. This goes hand-in-hand with lack of testing. 3 - There is some difference in the location that might impact the disease. For instance, China has a lot of air pollution, which could impact lung function, and may in turn increase the severity of COVID-19 symptoms, which primarily impact breathing by damaging the lungs. Hot and humid climates also seem to be inhospitable to the virus, though it is hot in Iran now and they're very hard hit. Widespread use of air conditioning might negate the effects of outside temperature and humidity, however. 4 - There could be population differences. This has not been studied yet, but in theory some people may be less susceptible to the disease because of genetic factors. 5 - Behavioral differences could impact this disease. Doing lots of testing, tracking down all the contacts of each infected individual and isolating them, having the population self-isolate and avoid gatherings can make a huge difference. Conversely, a population and government which ignore this outbreak or pretend it's not serious, and continue going on with their life as usual is a recipe for disaster. 6 - Medical preparedness: having a lot of excess ICU capacity, ventilators, personal protection equipment, and trained (and healthy, and not overworked) medical staff in hospitals.