3 ms·

And currently there are about 20 new infections per day in all of China. How is this even plausible? What are we doing totally wrong in Europe that China has do

by jansan 7y ago

And currently there are about 20 new infections per day in all of China. How is this even plausible? What are we doing totally wrong in Europe that China has done right? Or is there something fundamentally wrong with the numbers?

theseadroid 7y ago
Sorry for me spamming this but this is extraordinary times: For people who are curious what living in China feels like now (video uploaded Mar 14th), from a Japanese director living in Nanjing, China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM Things are getting back to normal, with tons of precautions. There are a few other youtube channels run by westerners vlogging on the current situation in China. e.g. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w Also, from someone lived in Wuhan: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-likely-to-get-sick-in-dublin-than-wuhan-says-teacher-ben-kavanagh-pxsvpdt8z https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-likely-to-get-sick-i...
- enitihas 7y ago
  I will recommend everyone to watch the Nanjing video. That is an insane amount of precautions. Keep in mind that it is about Nanjing, which was nowhere near Wuhan numbers. Some examples: 1. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place 2. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train you have to scan a QR 3. Takeout is totally touchless, and contains the names of the employees involved in making it. 4. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides. 5. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other. There are just some examples, the video shows many more. To top it all, everyone is wearing masks. Everyone.
  - WaltPurvis 7y ago
    You posted this simultaneously with my comment just above, and it provides some helpful information related to my questions. Thank you.
  - chippy 7y ago
    Just to update as this changes from day to day as things get relaxed (in Nanjing) > 1. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place Not every places anymore. Most shops, supermarkets or malls no longer have dedicated temperature staff. However entrances to living areas (neighbourhoods) and official infrastructure would have > 2. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train you have to scan a QR Not everywhere, like shops etc. However some cafes and restaurants required you to scan in to let you sit down. Additionally the app checked your face with your ID so you cant just share your qr code. > Takeout is touchless Also deliveries to your door are not back yet. Deliveries get dropped in a designated area where you go to pick them up. > 4. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides. However their version of "Uber" has no seals and is normal. > 5. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other. No longer the case as a rule. Most restaurants are not open for seating it seems currently, but those that do you can sit next to or opposite people now. However originally it was one person per seat when they first re-opened. Rules are being relaxed daily. In Nanjing there hasnt been a case of the virus for 2 weeks.
    - harmmonica 7y ago
      This may seem redundant, but can you confirm that the video from the Japanese resident of Nanjing is a fairly accurate representation of what it was like in Nanjing before the restrictions were loosened? Also, you didn't say it, but I assume you actually live in Nanjing currently? I have read countless comments online asking how can it be possible for China's case numbers to be nearly non-existent at this point and the Nanjing video paints the picture completely for me, an average American. Another comment in this thread talks about symptoms and what it's like actually having the virus. If a series of videos existed that showed a) what it's like having the disease (I haven't seen any videos showing that but the top comment on this thread as of now is a good first-person explanation of a "mild" case) and b) the lockdown response necessary to keep the numbers down or eliminate them altogether I feel like more people would be able to take this seriously here. Of course I also watch that Nanjing video and realize that I don't see how it's possible that Americans would ever go for such extreme measures, which makes one think that the UK "let them get sick to get herd immunity" starts to make more sense.
BurningFrog 7y ago
It could be that keeping 900M in house arrest is working, Or that the Chinese authorities are fibbing. Or, of course, a combination.
- saberdancer 7y ago
  Exactly. People have no idea how vast and strong the measures were. China locked down hard, Europe is going middle of the road with some lockdowns but nothing is really strongly enforced so far.
codewithcheese 7y ago
Which organizations are monitoring how many China is truly testing? These numbers are more plausible if they just reduced testing.
ceejayoz 7y ago
China's numbers continued to rise for some time after the lockdowns. If Italy's works, it won't necessarily be apparent yet. China was more aggressive about their locking down, so expect Italy's numbers to peak higher than theirs did.
bilbo0s 7y ago
China has a far more aggressive containment approach. I don't want to go too far into it, because China is a sensitive topic on HN. But here's a little snippet of how they handle people who violate self-isolation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKek0Y30Ctw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKek0Y30Ctw Not saying it's right or it's wrong. This is a serious threat. I know that even in the West right now, particularly in Italy, a lot of people would applaud this. Scofflaws can really hamper a society's recovery. Just trying to give people some context so they can better evaluate the difference in response protocols between East and West for themselves.
WaltPurvis 7y ago
Also: South Korea. They seem to have essentially stopped the spread of coronavirus with <0.02% of their population infected. People frequently cite extensive testing as the key to Korea's success, but it's not like they've been testing everybody; they've tested about one-half of one percent of the population. And they didn't even take steps nearly as drastic as China did in terms of quarantines and the like. I wish someone could provide good reasons for why they've been so successful at containing this virus. I obviously don't know much about infectious diseases, but it strikes me as really odd that there is a consensus among scientists that this virus will inevitably infect 20% to 70% of the US and the world, when it seems to be pretty well contained at less than 0.02% in China and South Korea. If this virus is so inexorably contagious, shouldn't it at least infect, I don't know, 5% of China/SK? Or at least one percent? I have been looking for answers to this puzzle and have found little or nothing to explain it.
stunt 7y ago
I think it's a matter of time everywhere it goes. Some East Asian countries have similar experiences in the past and people still remember. Everywhere else, including the EU, Some people don't take is seriously yet. Specially younger people don't understand not being at health risk doesn't mean that you aren't responsible to slow down the spread and keep elderly safe. My neighbor had birthday party last night. His house was full of people. Definitely not what I would call social distance.
pmoriarty 7y ago
Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, had this to say on episode 591 of This Week in Virology[1] a couple of days ago: "I heard recently that the Chinese aren't planning on doing serology on their population, which tells me that there's probably significantly more infections than the 80+ thousand that are reported and they don't want the actual number to be reported."[2] also: "The Chinese are primarily reporting cases in their quarantine zones, which involve a hundred million people and that the Chinese in rural communities are not being picked up by their surveillance systems."[3] [1] - http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/ [2] - about 12 minutes in to the program [3] - about 19 minutes in to the program
balola 7y ago
It's a campaign called "zero out", since Chinese officials only report to their superiors, you can imagine this urge to report zero or at little as possible to ensure their bright political career, this also explains basically any thing in China. There are anecdotes about communitiy cases listed on community notices but not reported in official data.

by jansan 7y ago

theseadroid 7y ago

Sorry for me spamming this but this is extraordinary times: For people who are curious what living in China feels like now (video uploaded Mar 14th), from a Japanese director living in Nanjing, China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM Things are getting back to normal, with tons of precautions. There are a few other youtube channels run by westerners vlogging on the current situation in China. e.g. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w Also, from someone lived in Wuhan: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-likely-to-get-sick-in-dublin-than-wuhan-says-teacher-ben-kavanagh-pxsvpdt8z https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-likely-to-get-sick-i...

enitihas 7y ago
I will recommend everyone to watch the Nanjing video. That is an insane amount of precautions. Keep in mind that it is about Nanjing, which was nowhere near Wuhan numbers. Some examples: 1. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place 2. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train you have to scan a QR 3. Takeout is totally touchless, and contains the names of the employees involved in making it. 4. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides. 5. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other. There are just some examples, the video shows many more. To top it all, everyone is wearing masks. Everyone.
- WaltPurvis 7y ago
  You posted this simultaneously with my comment just above, and it provides some helpful information related to my questions. Thank you.
- chippy 7y ago
  Just to update as this changes from day to day as things get relaxed (in Nanjing) > 1. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place Not every places anymore. Most shops, supermarkets or malls no longer have dedicated temperature staff. However entrances to living areas (neighbourhoods) and official infrastructure would have > 2. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train you have to scan a QR Not everywhere, like shops etc. However some cafes and restaurants required you to scan in to let you sit down. Additionally the app checked your face with your ID so you cant just share your qr code. > Takeout is touchless Also deliveries to your door are not back yet. Deliveries get dropped in a designated area where you go to pick them up. > 4. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides. However their version of "Uber" has no seals and is normal. > 5. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other. No longer the case as a rule. Most restaurants are not open for seating it seems currently, but those that do you can sit next to or opposite people now. However originally it was one person per seat when they first re-opened. Rules are being relaxed daily. In Nanjing there hasnt been a case of the virus for 2 weeks.
  - harmmonica 7y ago
    This may seem redundant, but can you confirm that the video from the Japanese resident of Nanjing is a fairly accurate representation of what it was like in Nanjing before the restrictions were loosened? Also, you didn't say it, but I assume you actually live in Nanjing currently? I have read countless comments online asking how can it be possible for China's case numbers to be nearly non-existent at this point and the Nanjing video paints the picture completely for me, an average American. Another comment in this thread talks about symptoms and what it's like actually having the virus. If a series of videos existed that showed a) what it's like having the disease (I haven't seen any videos showing that but the top comment on this thread as of now is a good first-person explanation of a "mild" case) and b) the lockdown response necessary to keep the numbers down or eliminate them altogether I feel like more people would be able to take this seriously here. Of course I also watch that Nanjing video and realize that I don't see how it's possible that Americans would ever go for such extreme measures, which makes one think that the UK "let them get sick to get herd immunity" starts to make more sense.

BurningFrog 7y ago

It could be that keeping 900M in house arrest is working, Or that the Chinese authorities are fibbing. Or, of course, a combination.

saberdancer 7y ago
Exactly. People have no idea how vast and strong the measures were. China locked down hard, Europe is going middle of the road with some lockdowns but nothing is really strongly enforced so far.

codewithcheese 7y ago

Which organizations are monitoring how many China is truly testing? These numbers are more plausible if they just reduced testing.

ceejayoz 7y ago

China's numbers continued to rise for some time after the lockdowns. If Italy's works, it won't necessarily be apparent yet. China was more aggressive about their locking down, so expect Italy's numbers to peak higher than theirs did.

bilbo0s 7y ago

China has a far more aggressive containment approach. I don't want to go too far into it, because China is a sensitive topic on HN. But here's a little snippet of how they handle people who violate self-isolation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKek0Y30Ctw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKek0Y30Ctw Not saying it's right or it's wrong. This is a serious threat. I know that even in the West right now, particularly in Italy, a lot of people would applaud this. Scofflaws can really hamper a society's recovery. Just trying to give people some context so they can better evaluate the difference in response protocols between East and West for themselves.

WaltPurvis 7y ago

Also: South Korea. They seem to have essentially stopped the spread of coronavirus with <0.02% of their population infected. People frequently cite extensive testing as the key to Korea's success, but it's not like they've been testing everybody; they've tested about one-half of one percent of the population. And they didn't even take steps nearly as drastic as China did in terms of quarantines and the like. I wish someone could provide good reasons for why they've been so successful at containing this virus. I obviously don't know much about infectious diseases, but it strikes me as really odd that there is a consensus among scientists that this virus will inevitably infect 20% to 70% of the US and the world, when it seems to be pretty well contained at less than 0.02% in China and South Korea. If this virus is so inexorably contagious, shouldn't it at least infect, I don't know, 5% of China/SK? Or at least one percent? I have been looking for answers to this puzzle and have found little or nothing to explain it.

stunt 7y ago

I think it's a matter of time everywhere it goes. Some East Asian countries have similar experiences in the past and people still remember. Everywhere else, including the EU, Some people don't take is seriously yet. Specially younger people don't understand not being at health risk doesn't mean that you aren't responsible to slow down the spread and keep elderly safe. My neighbor had birthday party last night. His house was full of people. Definitely not what I would call social distance.

pmoriarty 7y ago

Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, had this to say on episode 591 of This Week in Virology[1] a couple of days ago: "I heard recently that the Chinese aren't planning on doing serology on their population, which tells me that there's probably significantly more infections than the 80+ thousand that are reported and they don't want the actual number to be reported."[2] also: "The Chinese are primarily reporting cases in their quarantine zones, which involve a hundred million people and that the Chinese in rural communities are not being picked up by their surveillance systems."[3] [1] - http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/ [2] - about 12 minutes in to the program [3] - about 19 minutes in to the program

balola 7y ago

It's a campaign called "zero out", since Chinese officials only report to their superiors, you can imagine this urge to report zero or at little as possible to ensure their bright political career, this also explains basically any thing in China. There are anecdotes about communitiy cases listed on community notices but not reported in official data.