4 ms·

Air quality in (parts of) China is much worse than any part of Europe, even northern Italy. To be proportional, deaths in China would need to be a magnitude hig

Air quality in (parts of) China is much worse than any part of Europe, even northern Italy. To be proportional, deaths in China would need to be a magnitude higher. On the other end of the scale, Switzerland would need to be almost free of fatalities, etc. You also don’t have much of a model. It would be strange for one virus to show an extreme sensitivity to existing environmental lung damage when all our experiences show either linear or at worst multiplicative compounding.

snazz 7y ago
Smoking is also more common (to my knowledge) in Italy. That could have something to do with it.
- cglace 7y ago
  More common than China? I highly doubt it.
  - snazz 7y ago
    I stand corrected. The Wikipedia article shows China much higher than Italy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette...
taeric 7y ago
I didn't limit the virus to being sensitive to environmental lung damage. I'm saying existing lung damage makes people more prone to the serious cases. Would be why you haven't heard of many (any?) children getting this. You know they are getting it. So, I'm not clear on your criticism. The air quality in China is worse, but from what we've heard, their fatalities have been worse. They took ridiculously extreme measures and had a lot of deaths. My perspective is I had the worst asthma attack of my adult life a month ago. Closest to this I have had was when I had walking pneumonia about a decade ago. I literally could not breath well enough to say three words at a time. I was not tested for covid, because I did not knowingly have contact with someone that did. Looking back, hard for me to think I had something else. I look at the rest of my family, who have all had fevers and coughs, and I ask why don't they also have difficulty breathing? Best answer I have is lung health.
pmoriarty 7y ago
Well, in the affected parts of China enforced isolation is in effect, and satellite imagery has shown that the air in these areas is dramatically less polluted now, so the effects are mitigated for now. Also, they're only testing in affected cities, not in rural areas, where the virus could be much more prevalent for all we know. Their reporting of test results is unreliable anyway as they could be distorting numbers to make it seem like they have less of a problem than they do or to make it seem like their containment measures are working, and the tight control over the media and their totalitarian society makes it very difficult to independently confirm their numbers. So I would take any reports coming out of China with several large heaps of salt.

snazz 7y ago

Smoking is also more common (to my knowledge) in Italy. That could have something to do with it.

cglace 7y ago
More common than China? I highly doubt it.
- snazz 7y ago
  I stand corrected. The Wikipedia article shows China much higher than Italy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette...

taeric 7y ago

I didn't limit the virus to being sensitive to environmental lung damage. I'm saying existing lung damage makes people more prone to the serious cases. Would be why you haven't heard of many (any?) children getting this. You know they are getting it. So, I'm not clear on your criticism. The air quality in China is worse, but from what we've heard, their fatalities have been worse. They took ridiculously extreme measures and had a lot of deaths. My perspective is I had the worst asthma attack of my adult life a month ago. Closest to this I have had was when I had walking pneumonia about a decade ago. I literally could not breath well enough to say three words at a time. I was not tested for covid, because I did not knowingly have contact with someone that did. Looking back, hard for me to think I had something else. I look at the rest of my family, who have all had fevers and coughs, and I ask why don't they also have difficulty breathing? Best answer I have is lung health.

pmoriarty 7y ago

Well, in the affected parts of China enforced isolation is in effect, and satellite imagery has shown that the air in these areas is dramatically less polluted now, so the effects are mitigated for now. Also, they're only testing in affected cities, not in rural areas, where the virus could be much more prevalent for all we know. Their reporting of test results is unreliable anyway as they could be distorting numbers to make it seem like they have less of a problem than they do or to make it seem like their containment measures are working, and the tight control over the media and their totalitarian society makes it very difficult to independently confirm their numbers. So I would take any reports coming out of China with several large heaps of salt.