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The UK model also happens to be the Germany model: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 . The UK

by eeh 7y ago

The UK model also happens to be the Germany model: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 . The UK are focused on minimising deaths, by avoiding COVID-19 striking during next winter, when the NHS is at peak load due to winter flu. Instead, they will guide the first strike towards summer (NHS's least load), and impose measures to protect at-risk folk during that time.

Faark 7y ago
I'm not sure what the the "UK model" is, but schools don't seem to be closed there (are here in Germany) and I can't find good info about mass events being banned. The best term I found for Germany's policy is "flattening the curve", while UK news seem to describe theirs as "herd immunity". Sure, there will be overlap in policy, but wouldn't call it the same model.
- eeh 7y ago
  https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12388215155... is a UK modeller explaining that there has been a misreporting of UK's plan: UK aims to flatten the curve and reduce deaths. Herd immunity "is a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK." It's a bit longer, but here's the Chief Medical Officer talking about the UK's response. https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA UK is progressively adding lockdown too, per the response's plan.
lm28469 7y ago
> The UK model also happens to be the Germany model Eh ? Germany is on lock down right now, we'll be at Italy's level by the end of the week imho. UK says: "we're all going to get sick so let's not do anything." DE says: "we're all going to get sick so let's spread it over a long time as to not overwhelm our health system." That's a huge difference.
- eeh 7y ago
  https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12388215155... is a UK modeller explaining that there has been a misreporting of UK's plan: UK aims to flatten the curve. Herd immunity "is a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK." It's a bit longer, but here's the Chief Medical Officer talking about the UK's response. https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA UK is progressively adding lockdown too, per the response's plan.
hiq 7y ago
As of now, I don't think there's any evidence that the immunity from having been infected in the past would last long enough to avoid another peak in winter. This thread mentions that we can assume an immunity measured in "months" if we look at other coronaviruses: https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1238837158007447558 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/12388371580074475...

by eeh 7y ago

Faark 7y ago

I'm not sure what the the "UK model" is, but schools don't seem to be closed there (are here in Germany) and I can't find good info about mass events being banned. The best term I found for Germany's policy is "flattening the curve", while UK news seem to describe theirs as "herd immunity". Sure, there will be overlap in policy, but wouldn't call it the same model.

eeh 7y ago
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12388215155... is a UK modeller explaining that there has been a misreporting of UK's plan: UK aims to flatten the curve and reduce deaths. Herd immunity "is a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK." It's a bit longer, but here's the Chief Medical Officer talking about the UK's response. https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA UK is progressively adding lockdown too, per the response's plan.

lm28469 7y ago

> The UK model also happens to be the Germany model Eh ? Germany is on lock down right now, we'll be at Italy's level by the end of the week imho. UK says: "we're all going to get sick so let's not do anything." DE says: "we're all going to get sick so let's spread it over a long time as to not overwhelm our health system." That's a huge difference.

eeh 7y ago
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12388215155... is a UK modeller explaining that there has been a misreporting of UK's plan: UK aims to flatten the curve. Herd immunity "is a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK." It's a bit longer, but here's the Chief Medical Officer talking about the UK's response. https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA UK is progressively adding lockdown too, per the response's plan.

hiq 7y ago

As of now, I don't think there's any evidence that the immunity from having been infected in the past would last long enough to avoid another peak in winter. This thread mentions that we can assume an immunity measured in "months" if we look at other coronaviruses: https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1238837158007447558 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/12388371580074475...