4 ms·

Depends how you measure and what you call a "world event". * Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. * 2-5 m

Depends how you measure and what you call a "world event". * Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. * 2-5 million died in the Second Congo Civil War between 1998-2003, but to a first approximation only Congo and its immediate neighbors even noticed. * The US response to 9/11 killed around 500,000 people directly (war violence) and a lot more indirectly (health, economy, etc). The direct death toll of COVID-19 is unlikely to get anywhere close to this, but the indirect economic impact will clearly be global and massive.

rapsey 7y ago
I would measure it in terms of daily life being completely altered in most regions of the world and persisting after the event (which is yet to be determined but pretty much impossible to think it wont).
marvin 7y ago
2-5 million dead seems perfectly plausible at this point. But remember we're not only talking about deaths, we're also talking about disruptions in society. IMHO, we're already well into reorganization to a war economy in many countries, USA included. Meaning, truly exceptional circumstances where the status quo is suspended and different, urgent priorities are taken. Also, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Trump tries to postpone the elections in November.
mcv 7y ago
Those were certainly big events, but they were mostly local. COVID-19 is more global than anything I can think of. Social life is getting shut down in east Asia, India, Europe and the US. I'm not sure what South America, Africa and the Middle East are doing, but COVID-19 will hit them too. Even if the death toll is going to me more limited than other big events (we don't know that, though), it is absolutely massive and truly global. As for the potential death toll, if half the world gets it and 2% of them die, we're looking at a 80 million death count.
scotty79 7y ago
Covid could kill 40 million people globally in just the first wave of infections and not counting deaths caused by collateral damage. Just multiply half of the world population by mortality rate of 1%.
cbHXBY1D 7y ago
> Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. 40 to 80 million is absurdly large and just as fictitious as the numbers pushed in the "black book of communism". This is a good article which dissects those numbers: https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-millions-in-the-great-leap-forward/ https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-mil...

rapsey 7y ago

I would measure it in terms of daily life being completely altered in most regions of the world and persisting after the event (which is yet to be determined but pretty much impossible to think it wont).

marvin 7y ago

2-5 million dead seems perfectly plausible at this point. But remember we're not only talking about deaths, we're also talking about disruptions in society. IMHO, we're already well into reorganization to a war economy in many countries, USA included. Meaning, truly exceptional circumstances where the status quo is suspended and different, urgent priorities are taken. Also, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Trump tries to postpone the elections in November.

mcv 7y ago

Those were certainly big events, but they were mostly local. COVID-19 is more global than anything I can think of. Social life is getting shut down in east Asia, India, Europe and the US. I'm not sure what South America, Africa and the Middle East are doing, but COVID-19 will hit them too. Even if the death toll is going to me more limited than other big events (we don't know that, though), it is absolutely massive and truly global. As for the potential death toll, if half the world gets it and 2% of them die, we're looking at a 80 million death count.

scotty79 7y ago

Covid could kill 40 million people globally in just the first wave of infections and not counting deaths caused by collateral damage. Just multiply half of the world population by mortality rate of 1%.

cbHXBY1D 7y ago

> Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. 40 to 80 million is absurdly large and just as fictitious as the numbers pushed in the "black book of communism". This is a good article which dissects those numbers: https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-millions-in-the-great-leap-forward/ https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-mil...