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3.5% just doesn't make sense based on any of the case-fatality-rate data we've seen so far combined with the estimates of what proportion of infections are bein

3.5% just doesn't make sense based on any of the case-fatality-rate data we've seen so far combined with the estimates of what proportion of infections are being detected as cases. The UK government's chief medical adviser expects the real fatality rate to be around 0.6%, which is a lot easier to explain with the data than 3.5%.

Taek 7y ago
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article "The case-fatality risks, when adjusted for a 13-day lag time from reporting to death, were 3.5% in China; 0.8% in China, excluding Hubei Province; 4.2% in the group of 82 countries, territories, and areas; and 0.6% for the cruise ship (Table). Our result for China, excluding Hubei Province, is similar to a previous estimate of 0.9% (95% CI 0.6% - 1.3%) by using a time-delay adjusted case-fatality risk for the same area" This is the only research data I could find. Do have other data? I have multiple sources citing the WHO estimating 3.5%, but I was unable to find any first hand material from the WHO that said 3.5%. The information above - from the CDC, which I consider to be biased and underplaying the situation - has 0.6% as the lowest number, and 4.2% as the highest number. But honestly none of the data I just went digging through felt comfortable. Another thing to remember is that the case-fatality-rates we are seeing in most areas are because the hospital infrastructure can keep up with the number of infections. If the US gets over 1 million infections, the hospitals will not be able to keep up and mortality rates will spike significantly.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  Wait, you're talking about case fatality rates. I thought the above discussion was about the real fatality rate. Obviously CFR is going to be higher because you're excluding all the infections that didn't become cases - which are also the infections least likely to lead to death.
sauwan 7y ago
The morbidity rate is around 5%. In locations where they can keep the ICU beds from being overwhelmed, the mortality rate is low. In locations where the ICU beds are overwhelmed, the mortality rate goes up considerably. It all comes down to how well the system can respond to the load of people needing substantial medical care.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  It doesn't "all come down" to that, the testing regime and thus the proportion of infections that are actually detected is an enormous factor.

Taek 7y ago

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article "The case-fatality risks, when adjusted for a 13-day lag time from reporting to death, were 3.5% in China; 0.8% in China, excluding Hubei Province; 4.2% in the group of 82 countries, territories, and areas; and 0.6% for the cruise ship (Table). Our result for China, excluding Hubei Province, is similar to a previous estimate of 0.9% (95% CI 0.6% - 1.3%) by using a time-delay adjusted case-fatality risk for the same area" This is the only research data I could find. Do have other data? I have multiple sources citing the WHO estimating 3.5%, but I was unable to find any first hand material from the WHO that said 3.5%. The information above - from the CDC, which I consider to be biased and underplaying the situation - has 0.6% as the lowest number, and 4.2% as the highest number. But honestly none of the data I just went digging through felt comfortable. Another thing to remember is that the case-fatality-rates we are seeing in most areas are because the hospital infrastructure can keep up with the number of infections. If the US gets over 1 million infections, the hospitals will not be able to keep up and mortality rates will spike significantly.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
Wait, you're talking about case fatality rates. I thought the above discussion was about the real fatality rate. Obviously CFR is going to be higher because you're excluding all the infections that didn't become cases - which are also the infections least likely to lead to death.

sauwan 7y ago

The morbidity rate is around 5%. In locations where they can keep the ICU beds from being overwhelmed, the mortality rate is low. In locations where the ICU beds are overwhelmed, the mortality rate goes up considerably. It all comes down to how well the system can respond to the load of people needing substantial medical care.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
It doesn't "all come down" to that, the testing regime and thus the proportion of infections that are actually detected is an enormous factor.