4 ms·
That's 2% of 280 million, which is the conservative number for the COVID-19 deathrate
by CyanBird 7y ago
That's 2% of 280 million, which is the conservative number for the COVID-19 deathrate
- keiferski 7y agoSources?
- vanniv 7y agoThere is virtually no chance that 85% of the population will get covid-19
- tjoff 7y agoIt is pretty much in line with worst case scenarios in many European countries.
- rimliu 7y agoHow's that?
- tjoff 7y agoWhat? That is the worst case that governments are planning for / trying to avoid.
- rimliu 7y agoWhere did you get that 85% number. Most radical I saw so far was 70%
- tjoff 7y agouk speculates at 80%. I've read 85% (for another country) but I don't have time to dig it up. https://youtu.be/VNqfElehhKc?t=1765 https://youtu.be/VNqfElehhKc?t=1765 29:25 Obviously very uncertain numbers no matter who you ask.
- JanSt 7y ago2% is not a conservative number. It's expected to come in at 0.1%-0.5%. That's bad enough.
- watwut 7y agoI did not seen 0.1%-0.5% estimate in any official claim. They were all 2% or above.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoChief medical adviser of the UK govt claims 0.6%.
- JanSt 7y ago2% or above is only reached in populations that are tested sparsely. In countries that test more like South Korea and Germany* the death rate is much lower, because more infection cases are known. Italy's death rate is currently so high because only severe cases have been tested, because of limited test availability. The death rate will trend lower when more tests are performed. Germany currently has ~6000 infected and 13 death. * even in Germany you are (at least till very recently) only tested if you show symptoms AND have been in contact with an infected person or have been to a heavily hit region).
- Taek 7y agoWhat data supports 0.1% - 0.5%?
- _-___________-_ 7y agoNo, it's not the conservative number. The UK chief medical adviser estimates it at 0.6%, which is much easier to support with the available data (case fatality rate and an estimate of what proportion of infections are being detected as cases) than 2%.