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Without quarantines, COVID-19 will be 280 million infected and 6 million deaths in the US alone.
by forkexec 7y ago
Without quarantines, COVID-19 will be 280 million infected and 6 million deaths in the US alone.
- halamadrid 7y agoI just felt that we went through something similar in the past and was hopeful that we should be in a better place to handle this new incident? If not where you think we failed and what could we be doing for the next time?
- adjkant 7y agohttps://apnews.com/ce014d94b64e98b7203b873e56f80e9a https://apnews.com/ce014d94b64e98b7203b873e56f80e9a
- adrianN 7y agoLook at what Taiwan did. They have fewer than 100 cases, despite close contact to China.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoOr you could look at Cambodia. A handful of cases despite very close contact with China (and no travel ban affecting China, whereas Taiwan has one). Comparing cases between countries is completely meaningless, because every country has its own testing regime.
- adrianN 7y agoYou seem to imply that Taiwan is not testing people. That is not true.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoYou seem to imply that Cambodia is not testing people. I don't think either of us know for sure one way or another. Case numbers (and thus CFR as well) aren't comparable between countries, period. It's not as simple as "testing people" or "not testing people", each country has a different regime. Most countries won't test random asymptomatic people without a reason to do so. Heck, many countries won't even test symptomatic people unless there is a known link to a case.
- adrianN 7y agoI know for sure that Taiwan had an extremely early and extremely thorough response. They started tracking people who traveled to Wuhan by the end of December, when there were hardly any cases there. I have doubts that Cambodia has the systems in place to act similarly, but I'd be happy to hear otherwise.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoOh, I absolutely have doubts as well. But I don't believe any of this affects my point, which is that since the testing regime is different in each country, comparing the number of cases between countries is deeply problematic.
- pavelrub 7y agoHow is this even remotely similar? H1N1 killed less people in Italy in a year than coronavirus killed in a single day.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoHow did you arrive at 6 million?
- dpcan 7y ago1) Why are you assuming it will be 280 Million and not stop at around 59 Million like before? 2) Why choose a number like 6% when it's currently at 3.8%? 3) Why are we experiencing so much more panic over this virus?
- eric-hu 7y agoNot the commenter you're asking, but re: 2, 6/280 = 2.1% for the assumed mortality rate
- xxs 7y agoThe death toll is going to rise without proper care (the reason was given). I'd more modest like 35% of population is likely to get it.
- joshu 7y ago1) it’s a different virus with zero population immunity 2) number will spike when hospitals are overwhelmed 3) are you a dullard?
- jsjddbbwj 7y agoOrang man bad
- echelon 7y ago> 3) Why are we experiencing so much more panic over this virus? Italy's CFR is over 7%. They've implemented triage in Lombardy where they won't even consider someone over the age of 65, because they're out of beds and ventilators and want to ensure patients with the best chances for survival make it. Amongst those with symptoms, this virus has an 80% hospitalization rate. This virus is a test, and we're going to be found severely unprepared. Give me a moment and I'll go dig up my citations. Edit: I was wrong about the hospitalization rate. It appears to be 20% [1] One source cites a CFR of 5% in Italy as of two days ago. [2] [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/people-have-been-trying-underplay-why-coronavirus-different-flu-n1156801 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/people-have-been-... [2] https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-...
- echelon 7y agoI don't know why you're being downvoted. Anyone disagreeing with your figure should post a refutation. I'm shocked there are so many people treating covid-19 as if it's just the flu. Our medical system is going to be strained to the breaking point. It's a big fucking deal. There's a dog park with booze just outside my window, and it's packed to the brim with hipsters day after day. None of them care. The bars are overflowing with the St. Patrick's Day crowd. Insane. Why are so many people nonchalant? Can't they imagine how this situation plays out?
- keiferski 7y agoAs someone that is trying to wade through all the misinformation and hysteria, these kinds of comments that throw out numbers with zero sources and zero commentary are useless at best. If you're going to post statistical information (e.g. the virus has a 2% fatality rate) then link to the organization or study which said so.
- debaserab2 7y agoThere's no statistical information in the comment you're replying to...
- keiferski 7y agoThe comment I'm replying to is a response to the one above it and assumes a certain fatality rate, which is presented with no sources. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitive_relation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitive_relation
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- TaylorGood 7y agoAgreed! Thanks to Twitter I caught the severity of this "early" and about two weeks ago had my WTF moment. Felt like I was in the middle of an eartquake for a good hour. A switch flipped. For business and personal life I knew that I had to change up just about everything in order to address and ride through this as best as possible. Here is something I posted a week ago about the social landscape that still holds true unfortunately: Twitter: oh shit Instagram: what virus Facebook: you’re overreacting In person: toilet paper!!!!
- xiphias2 7y agoI'm mostly hopeful because people are taking COVID much more seriously than the flu. I couldn't get my parents to get a flu vaccine, but now they are doing self quarantine and taking it.seriously. As long as people are scared enough, they are relatively safe compared to other diseases.