3 ms·

Even if we accept your premise, how many dollars in economic activity will be destroyed by the deaths of enormous numbers of working age people because the hos

by nullc 7y ago

Even if we accept your premise, how many dollars in economic activity will be destroyed by the deaths of enormous numbers of working age people because the hospitals were overloaded and they couldn't get the critical care they needed?

Polylactic_acid 7y ago
I know this is horrible, but likely not too many. In Italy they are currently kicking people over 60 out of the hospitals to make way for the younger people who are more likely to survive with medical treatment.
- ddingus 7y ago
  And they have roughly 5 times the beds per 1000 people too.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    No they don't. Italy has much fewer critical care beds (the kind needed for COVID) than the United States, which is #1 in the world.
    - ncallaway 7y ago
      > No they don't. Italy has much fewer critical care beds (the kind needed for COVID) than the United States, which is #1 in the world. Do you have a link to statistics that support that? Is that on an absolute basis or on a per-capita basis? On a per-capita basis, I see more hospital beds in Italy than in the US (3.18 to 2.77): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp... What's your source for data on critical care beds? I'd love to take a look
      - tathougies 7y ago
        Oh sorry. Meant to post the article, from Forbes. US and germany are way ahead of the world. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#166e96df7f86 https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-co... Hospital beds are a different story, but not what is important for COVID, which needs ICU beds. Hospital beds are much easier to deploy anywhere (and with the emergency measures taken federally, will see a huge increase due to waived FDA requirements for inspection). An ICU is much more involved, and requires ventilators, specialty beds, special equipment, etc. Much more difficult to deploy suddenly in response to sudden upticks.
- vharuck 7y ago
  If a lot of people die, a lot of economic value will be literally put into the ground: funerals, handling of estates, coffins. That's not long-term productive value. At best it reshuffles money in an optimal-blind way.
nvahalik 7y ago
Except "working age people" are pretty much not impacted by this. The massive death rates are for people with existing preconditions: heart disease, lung problems, etc. There have been no deaths with children. Practically speaking, the only thing a "working page person" (<60) could do is unknowingly spread the virus to someone else.
- nullc 7y ago
  Sorry, I wish that were true. A non-trivial number of people under 60 year old also end up seriously ill and require critical care. In Wuhan half of all patients admitted to the ICU were age 25-49 ( https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ). For these younger people their prospects are good if they receive that care. An overloaded health system may be unable to provide that care to everyone who won't survive without it, including some younger people. A tremendous number of working people also have preconditions which are implicated for covid19 including hypertension and obesity. If you are a younger person and carelessly get an avoidable infection and end up in an overloaded hospital needing intensive care, your life may well be saved due to being triaged ahead of an older person with worse prospects. But in that case your life would be saved at the expense of someone else's. ... someone else who's infection might also be due to your spreading. I wouldn't be okay with that, and I hope you're not either. So I hope your glib attitude doesn't mean that you're not taking avoidable risks. In the US there hasn't yet been clearly established ethical guidance to direct triaging like that. Your local hospital may assign ICU care first come first served... if so mortality rates there for younger people won't look so good.
  - nullc 7y ago
    And now the CDC is reporting similarly to my claims above: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm...

by nullc 7y ago

Polylactic_acid 7y ago

I know this is horrible, but likely not too many. In Italy they are currently kicking people over 60 out of the hospitals to make way for the younger people who are more likely to survive with medical treatment.

ddingus 7y ago
And they have roughly 5 times the beds per 1000 people too.
- tathougies 7y ago
  No they don't. Italy has much fewer critical care beds (the kind needed for COVID) than the United States, which is #1 in the world.
  - ncallaway 7y ago
    > No they don't. Italy has much fewer critical care beds (the kind needed for COVID) than the United States, which is #1 in the world. Do you have a link to statistics that support that? Is that on an absolute basis or on a per-capita basis? On a per-capita basis, I see more hospital beds in Italy than in the US (3.18 to 2.77): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp... What's your source for data on critical care beds? I'd love to take a look
    - tathougies 7y ago
      Oh sorry. Meant to post the article, from Forbes. US and germany are way ahead of the world. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#166e96df7f86 https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-co... Hospital beds are a different story, but not what is important for COVID, which needs ICU beds. Hospital beds are much easier to deploy anywhere (and with the emergency measures taken federally, will see a huge increase due to waived FDA requirements for inspection). An ICU is much more involved, and requires ventilators, specialty beds, special equipment, etc. Much more difficult to deploy suddenly in response to sudden upticks.
vharuck 7y ago
If a lot of people die, a lot of economic value will be literally put into the ground: funerals, handling of estates, coffins. That's not long-term productive value. At best it reshuffles money in an optimal-blind way.

nvahalik 7y ago

Except "working age people" are pretty much not impacted by this. The massive death rates are for people with existing preconditions: heart disease, lung problems, etc. There have been no deaths with children. Practically speaking, the only thing a "working page person" (<60) could do is unknowingly spread the virus to someone else.

nullc 7y ago
Sorry, I wish that were true. A non-trivial number of people under 60 year old also end up seriously ill and require critical care. In Wuhan half of all patients admitted to the ICU were age 25-49 ( https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ). For these younger people their prospects are good if they receive that care. An overloaded health system may be unable to provide that care to everyone who won't survive without it, including some younger people. A tremendous number of working people also have preconditions which are implicated for covid19 including hypertension and obesity. If you are a younger person and carelessly get an avoidable infection and end up in an overloaded hospital needing intensive care, your life may well be saved due to being triaged ahead of an older person with worse prospects. But in that case your life would be saved at the expense of someone else's. ... someone else who's infection might also be due to your spreading. I wouldn't be okay with that, and I hope you're not either. So I hope your glib attitude doesn't mean that you're not taking avoidable risks. In the US there hasn't yet been clearly established ethical guidance to direct triaging like that. Your local hospital may assign ICU care first come first served... if so mortality rates there for younger people won't look so good.
- nullc 7y ago
  And now the CDC is reporting similarly to my claims above: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm...