So first off I've spent enough time with people in epidemiology/at the CDC to know that I (and probably you) don't know enough to have a more accurate armchair

So first off I've spent enough time with people in epidemiology/at the CDC to know that I (and probably you) don't know enough to have a more accurate armchair analysis than what their experts produce. Second, I would imagine ICU/critical care beds per capita is a better predictor of fatality rate than hospital beds and the US is very well equipped in that regard. The US medical system has numerous flaws, but in terms of technical ability to keep extremely sick people alive, the US is pretty good. We can debate the details, but since neither of us are experts it's probably a waste of time. However, there is absolutely no basis to say "best-case estimates right now have US deaths at 2 million". It is blatantly untrue - it directly contradicts every single expert analysis that I have seen.