4 ms·
> at zero risk of dying from COVID You're conflating the recorded fatality rate with the actual possibility for fatality, which is much higher. The fatality r
by crooked-v 7y ago
> at zero risk of dying from COVID
You're conflating the recorded fatality rate with the actual possibility for fatality, which is much higher.
The fatality rate is low among people 60 and under because the ones who suffer severe cases can reliably survive it with the aid of ventilators and round-the-clock medical care.
However, if the virus spreads enough to have a huge number of infections all at once, many of those severe cases that would have otherwise survived will die, because there's just not enough medical equipment or doctors for them.
See Italy, where the fatality rate is at a whopping 7.3% percent (much higher than even the 4.9% at the heart of the outbreak in Wuhan), because no measures were taken to control the spread until too late and so parts of the country have completely run out of ICU beds.
- alexanderchr 7y agoFrom what I've understood the mortality rate in Italy is artificially high because they are not prioritizing testing mild/asymptomatic cases. Until there are serological tests available we can only make guesses about the proportion of mild cases, but looking at the data from South Korea and Diamond Princess it looks like they make up the overwhelming majority of cases.
- zzleeper 7y agoIn Both SK and DP sick people got the best treatment. Without having access to enough respirators, CFRs would have been way higher there, which is exactly his point.
- alexanderchr 7y agoDefinitely, lack of proper intensive care will pull the CFR in the opposite direction. But I don't think that is the main reason we see such high CFR's in Italy.