4 ms·

What do you realistically estimate numbers to be in 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, and 4 weeks? When will we see exponential case growth taper off?

pdonis 7y ago
I think it depends a lot on how many individual people take common sense precautions themselves, instead of waiting for governments to take action. Even if there isn't a ban on large gatherings of people, if you don't have a very, very urgent reason to attend one, I would say, don't. Cancel it, or postpone it to a better time. Other common sense precautions should be easily seen. If enough people do that, I think we'll see US case growth start to taper off in a week or so.
- nemo44x 7y ago
  A week? If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. We’ll probably see cases drop off in 3-4 weeks. But between them and now the vast majority will be without the need for a hospital visit. We probably have about 200k sick people today. Few need help.
  - pdonis 7y ago
    > If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. The median incubation period is about 5 or 6 days, not 10. > We probably have about 200k sick people today. That's the big question that nobody really knows the answer to. If the actual number is indeed that high, then you're probably right that we won't see the rate taper off in a week. I personally don't think it's that high, because most of the cases identified to date are in particular clusters. If the virus had really been spreading within the population for weeks undetected, which it would have to be for numbers like 200k total to be possible, cases popping up now would not be clustered so much. At least, that's my read--but I don't think anybody really has a good handle on the actual spread of the virus at this point.

4 ms·

What do you realistically estimate numbers to be in 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, and 4 weeks? When will we see exponential case growth taper off?

by MuffinFlavored 7y ago

pdonis 7y ago
I think it depends a lot on how many individual people take common sense precautions themselves, instead of waiting for governments to take action. Even if there isn't a ban on large gatherings of people, if you don't have a very, very urgent reason to attend one, I would say, don't. Cancel it, or postpone it to a better time. Other common sense precautions should be easily seen. If enough people do that, I think we'll see US case growth start to taper off in a week or so.
- nemo44x 7y ago
  A week? If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. We’ll probably see cases drop off in 3-4 weeks. But between them and now the vast majority will be without the need for a hospital visit. We probably have about 200k sick people today. Few need help.
  - pdonis 7y ago
    > If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. The median incubation period is about 5 or 6 days, not 10. > We probably have about 200k sick people today. That's the big question that nobody really knows the answer to. If the actual number is indeed that high, then you're probably right that we won't see the rate taper off in a week. I personally don't think it's that high, because most of the cases identified to date are in particular clusters. If the virus had really been spreading within the population for weeks undetected, which it would have to be for numbers like 200k total to be possible, cases popping up now would not be clustered so much. At least, that's my read--but I don't think anybody really has a good handle on the actual spread of the virus at this point.