3 ms·

> and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+ Do you have a citation for that? We haven't seen a death rate of 0.2% in any population. SK

> and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+ Do you have a citation for that? We haven't seen a death rate of 0.2% in any population. SK (which has the broadest base of testing), Diamond Princess (which offered a unique case study, where we could test every person), and epidemiological estimates are all closer to 1%. Where are you getting the 0.2% number from?

tomrod 7y ago
Grandparent comment is almost certainly referring to the Case Fatality Rate. South Korea is a better example, due to widespread testing (there was a lot of self-selection on cruise populations). CFR of 3% - 5% for unprepared areas is not unreasonable. 0.6% is closer to the South Korean experience. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19
- th-ai 7y ago
  Chloroquine may explain why South Korea has low CFR https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M?t=891 https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M?t=891
  - evross 7y ago
    Really promising and excellent video. I hope chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) proves to be effective in emergency clinical trials. And that it can be readily sourced for upcoming patients if so. All researchers, doctors should see this video & cited papers to evaluate potential.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  Yes, but my specific question was: where did they get a CFR of 0.2% from? SK's CFR[1] is currently 0.9% (8,162 cases; 75 deaths). I haven't seen any source (or reputable estimate) that indicates a 0.2% CFR. So I'm asking for a citation or reference for where that number came from. [1] data from John's Hopkin's tracker: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
  - odkamkfn 7y ago
    Death rate != CFR. CFR is the fatality rate for diagnosed people and it's gonna swing wildly depending on how many people are tested and diagnosed. And considering how this virus affects young and healthy people, there's good reason to believe that a lot of people get infected and never seek out medical assistance and never get diagnosed. Even the best numbers we have are often skewed and misleading - as an example, we have a lot of good data from the cruise ship quarantined in Japan, but cruise passengers do not match the demographics of the general population.
amluto 7y ago
IIRC Diamond Princess tester people gradually over a prolonged period. They declared that anyone who tested negative at any point was obviously still negative when they got off the ship.
Taek 7y ago
From the CDC: "but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article
- ncallaway 7y ago
  But even that isn't really responsive. The parent said the death rate (without care) jumps from 0.2% to 3% (with care) as if both numbers were known. An article saying that the death rate (with care) could range anywhere from 0.25%-3.0% seems...like not a solid foundation to make the claim the parent commenter made.

tomrod 7y ago

Grandparent comment is almost certainly referring to the Case Fatality Rate. South Korea is a better example, due to widespread testing (there was a lot of self-selection on cruise populations). CFR of 3% - 5% for unprepared areas is not unreasonable. 0.6% is closer to the South Korean experience. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19

th-ai 7y ago
Chloroquine may explain why South Korea has low CFR https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M?t=891 https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M?t=891
- evross 7y ago
  Really promising and excellent video. I hope chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) proves to be effective in emergency clinical trials. And that it can be readily sourced for upcoming patients if so. All researchers, doctors should see this video & cited papers to evaluate potential.
ncallaway 7y ago
Yes, but my specific question was: where did they get a CFR of 0.2% from? SK's CFR[1] is currently 0.9% (8,162 cases; 75 deaths). I haven't seen any source (or reputable estimate) that indicates a 0.2% CFR. So I'm asking for a citation or reference for where that number came from. [1] data from John's Hopkin's tracker: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
- odkamkfn 7y ago
  Death rate != CFR. CFR is the fatality rate for diagnosed people and it's gonna swing wildly depending on how many people are tested and diagnosed. And considering how this virus affects young and healthy people, there's good reason to believe that a lot of people get infected and never seek out medical assistance and never get diagnosed. Even the best numbers we have are often skewed and misleading - as an example, we have a lot of good data from the cruise ship quarantined in Japan, but cruise passengers do not match the demographics of the general population.

amluto 7y ago

IIRC Diamond Princess tester people gradually over a prolonged period. They declared that anyone who tested negative at any point was obviously still negative when they got off the ship.

Taek 7y ago

From the CDC: "but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article

ncallaway 7y ago
But even that isn't really responsive. The parent said the death rate (without care) jumps from 0.2% to 3% (with care) as if both numbers were known. An article saying that the death rate (with care) could range anywhere from 0.25%-3.0% seems...like not a solid foundation to make the claim the parent commenter made.