3 ms·

Didn't one model show over 100M?

• Amygaz 7y ago
  No. That would implies 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate 15 (close to measles), and a mortality of 30% (close to Ebola). If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
• Amygaz 7y ago
  No. That would imply 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate of 15 (close to measles), and a mortality rate of 30% (close to Ebola). If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
  • deelowe 7y ago
    Thanks
• deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]