> Look, I don't want to be alarmist, but the worst outcome here is not '08. It's the 1930s. This seems unlikely. The Fed does not seem to be on track to contra

> Look, I don't want to be alarmist, but the worst outcome here is not '08. It's the 1930s. This seems unlikely. The Fed does not seem to be on track to contract the money supply by 30% causing a wave of bank collapses, and leading to a trade war that means international trade collapses this time. They may not pursue optimal policy but every macroeconomist knows that that would be a bad idea. The joys of limited data are a better appreciation of history than microeconomics.