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To be honest at first I found it suspiciously low, but now that the Scandinavian countries are very low as well it would require quite the conspiracy to keep th

To be honest at first I found it suspiciously low, but now that the Scandinavian countries are very low as well it would require quite the conspiracy to keep this up.

ryanobjc 7y ago
Conspiracy not needed. It’s winter. Old people die from the flu. Viral pneumonia. Without RNA tests the causes of death aren’t entire trustable. Consider the US: the numbers are low because we are under testing people. Significantly under counting.
- atoav 7y ago
  The German virulogist who developed the first test for COVID-19 speculated that based on the numbers Italy must have had more deaths earlier on, but might have mistaken them as old people dying from the flu (which happens all the time and therefore didn't raise any eyebrows in the medical system).
- contravariant 7y ago
  The US might be undercounting but they are still reporting a high proportion of deaths compared to infections. In my mind it is more likely that mild or asymptomatic cases are being missed than that deaths are being missed. So the number of deaths seems more likely to give an accurate indication of how far the outbreak has progressed. But indeed it's possible that those countries are simply not testing people suspected of having developed regular pneumonia, it's always tricky to compare these kinds of statistics when each country might use their own definitions and methods.
DrNuke 7y ago
It is still gamesmanship and internal politics (do not add to panic) in France and Germany, their numbers for Western Europe zone that is heavily interconnected with Northern Italy (the unfortunate guinea pig of the entire West, also for a number of local and central government inefficiencies and incompetence) just do not add up... it was the same in Spain until yesterday too, but they went tits up and opted for full transparence. The United States seem further behind in that respect, but the Fed just went full bazooka with printing money and Trump can now deploy any given artillery in full.

To be honest at first I found it suspiciously low, but now that the Scandinavian countries are very low as well it would require quite the conspiracy to keep this up.

ryanobjc 7y ago

Conspiracy not needed. It’s winter. Old people die from the flu. Viral pneumonia. Without RNA tests the causes of death aren’t entire trustable. Consider the US: the numbers are low because we are under testing people. Significantly under counting.

atoav 7y ago
The German virulogist who developed the first test for COVID-19 speculated that based on the numbers Italy must have had more deaths earlier on, but might have mistaken them as old people dying from the flu (which happens all the time and therefore didn't raise any eyebrows in the medical system).
contravariant 7y ago
The US might be undercounting but they are still reporting a high proportion of deaths compared to infections. In my mind it is more likely that mild or asymptomatic cases are being missed than that deaths are being missed. So the number of deaths seems more likely to give an accurate indication of how far the outbreak has progressed. But indeed it's possible that those countries are simply not testing people suspected of having developed regular pneumonia, it's always tricky to compare these kinds of statistics when each country might use their own definitions and methods.

DrNuke 7y ago

It is still gamesmanship and internal politics (do not add to panic) in France and Germany, their numbers for Western Europe zone that is heavily interconnected with Northern Italy (the unfortunate guinea pig of the entire West, also for a number of local and central government inefficiencies and incompetence) just do not add up... it was the same in Spain until yesterday too, but they went tits up and opted for full transparence. The United States seem further behind in that respect, but the Fed just went full bazooka with printing money and Trump can now deploy any given artillery in full.