3 ms·
How are California and Washington "behind" Italy, when both states had infections reported before Italy? Sorry, trying to understand the methodology here. Or a
by scurvy 7y ago
How are California and Washington "behind" Italy, when both states had infections reported before Italy? Sorry, trying to understand the methodology here.
Or are you just basing this off of raw case counts?
- originalvichy 7y agoI'm sorry to sound so cynical, but I have never seen so many statisticians and virologists pop up on the internet drawing all sorts of graphs and estimates. For all we know this person got their numbers by just guesstimating. Most countries have differing "exposure vectors" so to say, which means that just comparing other countries to Italy is nonsense.
- m0zg 7y ago>> never seen so many statisticians and virologists pop up The same people were prominent internet economists and political scientists just a month ago. They have many talents.
- topher515 7y agoFrom the "Appendix / methodology" section at the bottom of the page: > "Day 1" is when a country reaches 100 cases. A country is "X days behind Italy" if they reached 100 cases that many days after Italy did.
- benkuhn 7y ago> "Day 1" is when a country reaches 100 cases. A country is "X days behind Italy" if they reached 100 cases that many days after Italy did. Before 100 cases, the evolution of the epidemic is noisy, but it becomes pretty regular afterwards with 20-30% daily growth (in the absence of strong control measures).