8 ms·

Forecasting Germany as if it were Italy isn't entirely fair, given that Germany has only had 9 deaths with 5000 confirmed cases while Italy had close to 200 dea

Forecasting Germany as if it were Italy isn't entirely fair, given that Germany has only had 9 deaths with 5000 confirmed cases while Italy had close to 200 deaths by the time they managed to confirm 5000 cases. As far as I can tell the situation does seems to be developing at the same rate, but going by the confirmed deaths I'd place Germany about 2 weeks behind Italy, not a mere 7 days. Which for exponential growth matters a lot. Edit: Also note that forecasting countries as if they were South Korea has the opposite problem as the fatality rate of South Korea has remained low compared to other countries (though not as low as Germany's and those of Scandinavia).

ygra 7y ago
Right now the official explanation is that we're quite good with testing and isolating cases so far, which would mean that the confirmed count right now is much closer to the actual count than in Italy (or the US). On Twitter the opinion seems mostly to be that the death cause is doctored. I'm kinda hoping for the first, right now, because the projections aren't pretty (even if we're a bit further behind Italy). We only now started shutting down schools, and most events and even that is spotty as every state does its own thing and sometimes even every city.
- contravariant 7y ago
  To be honest at first I found it suspiciously low, but now that the Scandinavian countries are very low as well it would require quite the conspiracy to keep this up.
  - ryanobjc 7y ago
    Conspiracy not needed. It’s winter. Old people die from the flu. Viral pneumonia. Without RNA tests the causes of death aren’t entire trustable. Consider the US: the numbers are low because we are under testing people. Significantly under counting.
    - atoav 7y ago
      The German virulogist who developed the first test for COVID-19 speculated that based on the numbers Italy must have had more deaths earlier on, but might have mistaken them as old people dying from the flu (which happens all the time and therefore didn't raise any eyebrows in the medical system).
    - contravariant 7y ago
      The US might be undercounting but they are still reporting a high proportion of deaths compared to infections. In my mind it is more likely that mild or asymptomatic cases are being missed than that deaths are being missed. So the number of deaths seems more likely to give an accurate indication of how far the outbreak has progressed. But indeed it's possible that those countries are simply not testing people suspected of having developed regular pneumonia, it's always tricky to compare these kinds of statistics when each country might use their own definitions and methods.
  - DrNuke 7y ago
    It is still gamesmanship and internal politics (do not add to panic) in France and Germany, their numbers for Western Europe zone that is heavily interconnected with Northern Italy (the unfortunate guinea pig of the entire West, also for a number of local and central government inefficiencies and incompetence) just do not add up... it was the same in Spain until yesterday too, but they went tits up and opted for full transparence. The United States seem further behind in that respect, but the Fed just went full bazooka with printing money and Trump can now deploy any given artillery in full.
- fock 7y ago
  I think it's a mixture of both. Underreporting of deaths and relatively strict lockdowns in known outbreak areas (basically municipial governments can call for that in Germany - so think the S...-County in Washington going on total lockdown by some local politicians authority). Looking at the Italian data this thing really seems to ravage through the elderly and although it's very sad that they now won't get ICU and co. my personal, subjective opinion (samplesize n=3) is that in this age-group hospitalisation for non-chronic, dire stuff basically just is a death-sentence anyway. People go through rehab, home-care to the hospital again where they succumb to some resisant bacteria in coma... It's sad they'll now die fast from pneumonia but ultimately that's life and judging from the n=3 samples, I'd much prefer a relatively fast, morphine-assisted death by suffocating (not sure how bad it feels with morphine) at this age to the comatose, 15-meds a day mushing up your brain-situation, which is typical. Disclaimer: I'm aware, Italy is not doing palliative care anymore (which is really bad!) and also that this is not just a flu and also younger people die, but hopefully the rates here are closer to the real flu (which, talking from family experience again...) can kill a 20-something as well.
ocholaoizoren 7y ago
Haahhahaha. Are we supposed to take it at face value that that’s the cases in Germany? Scandinavian countries have stopped testing all together and gone with the UK plan without saying it out right. Some of those countries can barely handle their crime wave and shootings/bombings they obviously lack the resolve and skills set to actually do something.
nujabe 7y ago
>Forecasting Germany as if it were Italy isn't entirely fair, given that Germany has only had 9 deaths with 5000 confirmed cases while Italy had close to 200 deaths by the time they managed to confirm 5000 cases. I think it's fair, Italy's population just happens oldest in Europe and more likely to suffer fatalities.
- contravariant 7y ago
  Whatever the cause, you wouldn't expect the hospitals in Germany to get in trouble soon while they're still seeing way fewer fatalities. Of course this being an exponential growth that only buys them time, it won't stop the outbreak.
Rexxar 7y ago
Mortality rate is very dependant on age and health. The initial infection in Italy was in an hospital and so the initial propagation was in older population and in the medical staff which have a lot of contact with old people and people with bad health. On the other side, people in Germany who gets the virus were very often young people travelling to Italy and they contaminate their young and healthy German friends when they come back in Germany. This is probably enough to explain the initial difference in mortality.
ryanobjc 7y ago
People presuming that there’s a difference in viral behavior between countries and that’s why some countries, in these early days, are showing statistical differences. But this is folly. There is no evidence that some “peoples” fare better and that some countries have “better” health systems. Evidence out of Seattle indicates that the illness rate and death rate from China are showing up here as well. Don’t kid yourself that your area will be less hit and that’s why you can keep on living a normal life.

ygra 7y ago

Right now the official explanation is that we're quite good with testing and isolating cases so far, which would mean that the confirmed count right now is much closer to the actual count than in Italy (or the US). On Twitter the opinion seems mostly to be that the death cause is doctored. I'm kinda hoping for the first, right now, because the projections aren't pretty (even if we're a bit further behind Italy). We only now started shutting down schools, and most events and even that is spotty as every state does its own thing and sometimes even every city.

contravariant 7y ago
To be honest at first I found it suspiciously low, but now that the Scandinavian countries are very low as well it would require quite the conspiracy to keep this up.
- ryanobjc 7y ago
  Conspiracy not needed. It’s winter. Old people die from the flu. Viral pneumonia. Without RNA tests the causes of death aren’t entire trustable. Consider the US: the numbers are low because we are under testing people. Significantly under counting.
  - atoav 7y ago
    The German virulogist who developed the first test for COVID-19 speculated that based on the numbers Italy must have had more deaths earlier on, but might have mistaken them as old people dying from the flu (which happens all the time and therefore didn't raise any eyebrows in the medical system).
  - contravariant 7y ago
    The US might be undercounting but they are still reporting a high proportion of deaths compared to infections. In my mind it is more likely that mild or asymptomatic cases are being missed than that deaths are being missed. So the number of deaths seems more likely to give an accurate indication of how far the outbreak has progressed. But indeed it's possible that those countries are simply not testing people suspected of having developed regular pneumonia, it's always tricky to compare these kinds of statistics when each country might use their own definitions and methods.
- DrNuke 7y ago
  It is still gamesmanship and internal politics (do not add to panic) in France and Germany, their numbers for Western Europe zone that is heavily interconnected with Northern Italy (the unfortunate guinea pig of the entire West, also for a number of local and central government inefficiencies and incompetence) just do not add up... it was the same in Spain until yesterday too, but they went tits up and opted for full transparence. The United States seem further behind in that respect, but the Fed just went full bazooka with printing money and Trump can now deploy any given artillery in full.
fock 7y ago
I think it's a mixture of both. Underreporting of deaths and relatively strict lockdowns in known outbreak areas (basically municipial governments can call for that in Germany - so think the S...-County in Washington going on total lockdown by some local politicians authority). Looking at the Italian data this thing really seems to ravage through the elderly and although it's very sad that they now won't get ICU and co. my personal, subjective opinion (samplesize n=3) is that in this age-group hospitalisation for non-chronic, dire stuff basically just is a death-sentence anyway. People go through rehab, home-care to the hospital again where they succumb to some resisant bacteria in coma... It's sad they'll now die fast from pneumonia but ultimately that's life and judging from the n=3 samples, I'd much prefer a relatively fast, morphine-assisted death by suffocating (not sure how bad it feels with morphine) at this age to the comatose, 15-meds a day mushing up your brain-situation, which is typical. Disclaimer: I'm aware, Italy is not doing palliative care anymore (which is really bad!) and also that this is not just a flu and also younger people die, but hopefully the rates here are closer to the real flu (which, talking from family experience again...) can kill a 20-something as well.

ocholaoizoren 7y ago

Haahhahaha. Are we supposed to take it at face value that that’s the cases in Germany? Scandinavian countries have stopped testing all together and gone with the UK plan without saying it out right. Some of those countries can barely handle their crime wave and shootings/bombings they obviously lack the resolve and skills set to actually do something.

nujabe 7y ago

>Forecasting Germany as if it were Italy isn't entirely fair, given that Germany has only had 9 deaths with 5000 confirmed cases while Italy had close to 200 deaths by the time they managed to confirm 5000 cases. I think it's fair, Italy's population just happens oldest in Europe and more likely to suffer fatalities.

contravariant 7y ago
Whatever the cause, you wouldn't expect the hospitals in Germany to get in trouble soon while they're still seeing way fewer fatalities. Of course this being an exponential growth that only buys them time, it won't stop the outbreak.

Rexxar 7y ago

Mortality rate is very dependant on age and health. The initial infection in Italy was in an hospital and so the initial propagation was in older population and in the medical staff which have a lot of contact with old people and people with bad health. On the other side, people in Germany who gets the virus were very often young people travelling to Italy and they contaminate their young and healthy German friends when they come back in Germany. This is probably enough to explain the initial difference in mortality.

ryanobjc 7y ago

People presuming that there’s a difference in viral behavior between countries and that’s why some countries, in these early days, are showing statistical differences. But this is folly. There is no evidence that some “peoples” fare better and that some countries have “better” health systems. Evidence out of Seattle indicates that the illness rate and death rate from China are showing up here as well. Don’t kid yourself that your area will be less hit and that’s why you can keep on living a normal life.