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Relax and eventually lift yeah, because you would've "starved" the virus out by not giving them new non-immune hosts to jump to.
by KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
Relax and eventually lift yeah, because you would've "starved" the virus out by not giving them new non-immune hosts to jump to.
- cm2187 7y agoThat's the bit I don't understand. The virus jumped from a handful of infected people on a market in china to hundreds of thousands all around the world in a few weeks. Unless we eliminated 100.0000% of the virus, how will it not pop up again as soon as we lift the curfew?
- brokensegue 7y agoat some point enough people have had it that we can get some herd immunity kicking in
- cm2187 7y agoYes, but I don’t think this is what quarantine achieves.
- brokensegue 7y agoquarantine slows the spread to a level the hospitals can deal with
- hk__2 7y agoRight now we don’t know if immunity lasts long enough for herd immunity to work.
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y agoHerd immunity = aka giving up and killing millions globally. Fuck that shit and arrest everyone who suggests it on crimes against humanity.
- brokensegue 7y agono you quarantine to slow the spread so you slowly infect everyone and the hospital system keeps up. then you release quarantine and boom herd immunity saves you. or a vaccine.
- DoreenMichele 7y agoIn pressure cooker environments, bacteria are known to mutate at higher rates. When we kill enough of a species, infections typical of that species tend to jump species. We've never had 7 billion people on the planet before. I (very unscientifically) feel like this is turning global in a way that I haven't seen previously. The world is in all new territory. I wouldn't count on things working like anything we have seen previously.
- brokensegue 7y agoplease calm down. the laws of physics haven't changed. we'll likely have a vaccine in a few years at worst. we survived the flu of 1918 without all this new-fangled technology.
- DoreenMichele 7y agoplease calm down. I'm not being hysterical. The laws don't have to change for them to work differently when conditions change. We are in a situation the world has not seen before. I don't think you can realistically predict where this is going. There's nothing hysterical or crazy about making that observation.
- brokensegue 7y agowell the epidemiologists do think they can predict the course and make useful suggestions. South Korea basically beat this thing already. Meanwhile non-scientific beliefs that "things are different this time" are usually wrong.
- DoreenMichele 7y agoYeah, so, I think you are reading in something I never said. It sounds to me like you are hearing some doomsday prediction I never made. All I said was "I don't think we can predict where this goes." That's it. That's my entire point. And I don't know why you have such a problem with that.
- zozbot234 7y agoThe virus "jumped" because people were clueless about it, and missing even the slightest precautions. No washing hands, no wearing masks, no social distancing even among total strangers, etc. etc. There's no way this will happen again with the same ease.
- cm2187 7y agoI don’t know. The tube in London at peak hour looks like to me as an even better spreading zone than a school. Not much we can do about that.
- zozbot234 7y ago> Not much we can do about that. You can avoid packing people in the trains to that extent, for starters. Take temperature readings at all stations, so that the people with the worst symptoms (who are at the highest risk of spreading the virus) can be kept out. And spread out "peak hour" by having people enter and leave workplaces with flexible hours, while others just stay home altogether.
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y agoShut it down, print money for UBI. It's only 3 weeks life will go back to normal afterwards.
- cm2187 7y agoI believe we are rather talking about 2-3 months
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y agoThe incubation period is only 2 weeks, why would you need 2-3 months? Wuhan, the worst hit in the world only lasted about 5 weeks.
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y agoIt's been 4 months already since early December, so not a few weeks. A few weeks is enough time to control a small spread, see Singapore or Taiwan for example for what great results can be achieved with diligent testing. You keep testing people aggressively and follow up on any positives. Contact tracing is enough to stop the spread if you do it early enough, and like I said, proof is in Singapore and Taiwan. The problem in the west is no testing so there's nobody to follow. RIP potentially millions for that failure.
- barry-cotter 7y agoThis won’t work. The virus is in over 100 countries, some sufferers are asymptomatic and many have symptoms comparable to a cold. To make matters worse there’s already community transmission in every Western country I’m aware of. It’s too late for contact tracing to be a long term solution. The last time that was possible was when the virus was confined to Wuhan. This is going to infect 60-70% of the population in every country unless they adopt Israel style two week quarantine for all international travelers or North Korea style killing everyone who gets the virus, or just close the borders completely.
- KaoruAoiShiho 7y agoIt's too late for contact tracing NOW. Contact tracing is the "relaxed" solution after we bazooka the virus with a quarantine such that the virus dies in 99% of current hosts. That brings the numbers down to a manageable level so that contact tracing will be effective.