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#2: we'll see about that; the UK is betting that China's strategy, even if it could be applied in the West (which it can't be) will be ineffective in the medium
by m0zg 7y ago
#2: we'll see about that; the UK is betting that China's strategy, even if it could be applied in the West (which it can't be) will be ineffective in the medium to long term
#3: there is: if 60-70 percent of people are equipped to kill the virus, it's the best "quarantine" imaginable for people who are at risk
#4: those who have comorbidities could also self-isolate; it's still much better than telling _everyone_ to self-isolate - that's simply not going to happen unless you weld people's doors shut
- threeseed 7y agoChina's strategy is largely what is being adopted in Europe and Australia/NZ. And as we've seen in Italy it's absolutely possible to have everyone self-isolate. You just police it.
- m0zg 7y agoItaly is _way_ not out of the woods yet. Their case growth remains exponential. It's too early to tell if their strategy is working at all. Germany is already planning for herd immunity scenario (as per Merkel - she expects 60-70% of Germany's population will be infected, and hundreds of thousands will die). In fact I don't see any difference in the rate of doubling between Italy (which is imposing hardcore containment measures) and the UK where the measures are much less severe. Although I'm sure Italians feel like they're "doing something" and "in control" of the situation, so it should be psychologically easier. But that's not the reality I see in the graphs.