> It’s looking increasingly likely that the COVID-19 pandemic will cause a recession. I’m neither an epidemiologist nor an economist Financial markets have sta

> It’s looking increasingly likely that the COVID-19 pandemic will cause a recession. I’m neither an epidemiologist nor an economist Financial markets have stability issues when the situation is calm in the short term, but it’s unknown what’s going to happen six months from now. The situation is reversed today, we’re all going through some bad mess due to our states being unprepared for this, but it’s mid to high chance this will have settled one way or another in six months. What we had last week was a shock that came not from the financial system itself but from public health. We might have to adjust our lives to this and that might have financial implications, but there’s nothing fundamentally different in terms of financial markets between the week before and the last week. Recessions or down cycles are normal, and that might happen - and that is finances just charting the rest of the world at large. But the 2008 crisis was a result of something going haywire in the financial system itself, which is something that is more prone to create much bigger shocks than external events. We might have a mild recession, yes. But it’s unlikely it’s going to be like 2008, since this crisis is fundamentally external.