5 ms·

If anything, I think tech is protected from the effects of the coming recession. Our industry is one of the best poised to maintain business as usual. That said

by mydpy 7y ago

If anything, I think tech is protected from the effects of the coming recession. Our industry is one of the best poised to maintain business as usual. That said, the impact of the economic effects is coming.

H8crilA 7y ago
Are you kidding me? Tech is so ridiculously inflated, just look at how many stupid "tech" startups were created recently. This will deleverage now. Not even the "big guys" are so super safe - a lot of VC money is recycled back into "tech" via AWS bills and online ads. The only worse business right now is probably oil, especially fracking. Those guys are doomed.
- 2019-nCoV 7y ago
  The cruise ship industry would like a word with you.
  - H8crilA 7y ago
    There's a few more small sectors like this. But I was thinking of the "official" s&p sectors: https://www.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-snp/ https://www.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-snp/
- rvz 7y ago
  Depends on which "big guys" you are on about. Likely, it's those who have recently IPO'd on VC money and depend on lots of moving parts and huge costs like cloud costs, logistics, travel and are also in specific domains which are waiting to be sherlocked by a FAAMNG company. The best of all: It is those "tech" startups who generate little revenue and no profit, but take in VC money into their series D,E,F and G+ for years. Ultimately, it comes to no surprise that layoffs from such startups would happen at this time since my so called "machine learning crystal ball" predicted this [0] anyway whilst ignoring other earlier vacuous predictions. FAAMNG and other profitable companies will survive this. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473
  - H8crilA 7y ago
    When I wrote "big guys" I meant Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Amazon. And I meant even those aren't safe due to the reasons mentioned in the GP, despite large cash buffers and generally excellent credit. Many (most?) companies will survive, the question is in what form.
    - rvz 7y ago
      Correct. No-one's completely safe. But those companies you mention that are made up of the FAAMNG including Netflix are powering the majority of the internet services such as (AWS, GCP, Azure, Facebook Ads and Apple Services) which are used by many developers and startups. For some of them, this isn't even their main source of revenue generation. It's the unsustainable VC funded, near-zero revenue, rapid growth and high costs burn rate so called 'tech' startups which some have IPO'd or some are still raising capital with no plan for a profit that will not survive.
- heedlessly3 7y ago
  You are completely wrong. Tech is definitely not worst industry affected by the corona virus by a long shot. Service workers are definitely not a job that can be done at home. Tech workers usually have good salaries while service workers are likely to live paycheck to paycheck. Plus they do not have the same access to medical benefits.
terrymah 7y ago
From direct effects, maybe. But no one is immune from the second order effects. Once our customers start going out of business because they are directly exposed, they can't buy our software anymore.
Hoasi 7y ago
> tech is protected from the effects of the coming recession. How so? > Our industry is one of the best poised to maintain business as usual. It may look true from a certain point of view. But things change very fast. A while ago, bankers thought they were immune to disruption in their industry. Preparing your contingency plan never hurts.
closeparen 7y ago
I think that depends. Netflix will be in great shape. Amazon will be hurt by falling consumer spending but benefit greatly from people transitioning the rest of the retail activity to online shopping. Apple will probably not sell too many premium goods to people who have just been laid off. Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, being B2B companies, are subject to the rest of the economy. Transportation is in big trouble, although food delivery is poised to take off.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  Aye, downloaded Uber Eats and SkipTheDishes for the first time this weekend. The streets are empty and the local gub'mnt has been advising people to avoid gatherings like restaurants and bars. They're open still, and probably slingin mad amounts of food, but all delivery...
PopeDotNinja 7y ago
A company that's overstaffed will axe people, especially the expensive ones.
raincom 7y ago
If stock market tanks 40% from its peak, C-level execs will start laying off people.

by mydpy 7y ago

H8crilA 7y ago

Are you kidding me? Tech is so ridiculously inflated, just look at how many stupid "tech" startups were created recently. This will deleverage now. Not even the "big guys" are so super safe - a lot of VC money is recycled back into "tech" via AWS bills and online ads. The only worse business right now is probably oil, especially fracking. Those guys are doomed.

2019-nCoV 7y ago
The cruise ship industry would like a word with you.
- H8crilA 7y ago
  There's a few more small sectors like this. But I was thinking of the "official" s&p sectors: https://www.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-snp/ https://www.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-snp/
rvz 7y ago
Depends on which "big guys" you are on about. Likely, it's those who have recently IPO'd on VC money and depend on lots of moving parts and huge costs like cloud costs, logistics, travel and are also in specific domains which are waiting to be sherlocked by a FAAMNG company. The best of all: It is those "tech" startups who generate little revenue and no profit, but take in VC money into their series D,E,F and G+ for years. Ultimately, it comes to no surprise that layoffs from such startups would happen at this time since my so called "machine learning crystal ball" predicted this [0] anyway whilst ignoring other earlier vacuous predictions. FAAMNG and other profitable companies will survive this. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473
- H8crilA 7y ago
  When I wrote "big guys" I meant Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Amazon. And I meant even those aren't safe due to the reasons mentioned in the GP, despite large cash buffers and generally excellent credit. Many (most?) companies will survive, the question is in what form.
  - rvz 7y ago
    Correct. No-one's completely safe. But those companies you mention that are made up of the FAAMNG including Netflix are powering the majority of the internet services such as (AWS, GCP, Azure, Facebook Ads and Apple Services) which are used by many developers and startups. For some of them, this isn't even their main source of revenue generation. It's the unsustainable VC funded, near-zero revenue, rapid growth and high costs burn rate so called 'tech' startups which some have IPO'd or some are still raising capital with no plan for a profit that will not survive.
heedlessly3 7y ago
You are completely wrong. Tech is definitely not worst industry affected by the corona virus by a long shot. Service workers are definitely not a job that can be done at home. Tech workers usually have good salaries while service workers are likely to live paycheck to paycheck. Plus they do not have the same access to medical benefits.

terrymah 7y ago

From direct effects, maybe. But no one is immune from the second order effects. Once our customers start going out of business because they are directly exposed, they can't buy our software anymore.

Hoasi 7y ago

> tech is protected from the effects of the coming recession. How so? > Our industry is one of the best poised to maintain business as usual. It may look true from a certain point of view. But things change very fast. A while ago, bankers thought they were immune to disruption in their industry. Preparing your contingency plan never hurts.

closeparen 7y ago

I think that depends. Netflix will be in great shape. Amazon will be hurt by falling consumer spending but benefit greatly from people transitioning the rest of the retail activity to online shopping. Apple will probably not sell too many premium goods to people who have just been laid off. Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, being B2B companies, are subject to the rest of the economy. Transportation is in big trouble, although food delivery is poised to take off.

blaser-waffle 7y ago
Aye, downloaded Uber Eats and SkipTheDishes for the first time this weekend. The streets are empty and the local gub'mnt has been advising people to avoid gatherings like restaurants and bars. They're open still, and probably slingin mad amounts of food, but all delivery...

PopeDotNinja 7y ago

A company that's overstaffed will axe people, especially the expensive ones.

raincom 7y ago

If stock market tanks 40% from its peak, C-level execs will start laying off people.