Try this exercise: - Google the # of hospital beds in the UK - Google the # of ventilators in the UK - Pick your own fraction as to how many are currently av

Try this exercise: - Google the # of hospital beds in the UK - Google the # of ventilators in the UK - Pick your own fraction as to how many are currently available - pick your own fraction of 40mm that will require hospitalization - pick your own fraction of 40mm that will require ventilation - Make your assumptions fit the # of hospital beds and ventilators I haven't done all the arithmetic, but my gut says you will end up assuming that people in the "young" bucket are all essentially immune to severe forms of the disease. This is at odds with evidence in e.g. France, which would indicate a problem with your assumptions.