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You proved my point. Aggressive testing will plump up the denominator. Deaths cannot escape so the numerator is accurate. In Germany and Switzerland if all the
by eanzenberg 7y ago
You proved my point. Aggressive testing will plump up the denominator. Deaths cannot escape so the numerator is accurate.
In Germany and Switzerland if all the serious cases are deaths then the death rate is 0.1-0.5%.
- rrss 7y agoPeople do not die instantaneously when they are infected. There is potentially a multi-week lag between people showing up in the confirmed cases number and people showing up in the deaths number. Two weeks ago, Germany had ~100 cases. Today, Germany has 11 deaths. Germany has a total of 57 cases with outcomes (46 of 57 recovered). South Korea has ~900 cases with outcomes (~75 dead). China has ~70k cases with outcomes (~3k dead). Let's wait a few weeks before reaching conclusions about the mortality rate in Germany and using that as evidence to prove covid-19 is just a mild flu. Deaths / cases with outcomes is an overestimate (19% for Germany). Deaths / total cases is an underestimate (0.2% for Germany). Somewhere in between is the true mortality rate.
- baq 7y agoCFR isn't a number, it's a function. it has a discontinuity at the point where hospitalized case count becomes greater than available hospital bed count.