4 ms·

Hospitals are already stretched, it takes hours of waiting to treat normal injuries such as broken legs. Waiting list for some operations is years long. How ma

Hospitals are already stretched, it takes hours of waiting to treat normal injuries such as broken legs. Waiting list for some operations is years long. How many people are going to die from other causes, if we shutdown entire country for 6 months? How many of those will be children and young people? It may sound harsh, but as a younger person I prefer this plan.

Zenst 7y ago
Indeed, you realy want the bulk of those who will not have complications to catch it early and leaving schools open, enables that. Over making every parent stay at home to look after their child! Coz you need to balance out infections and with that manage them, so you will see periodic lockdowns in some parts to throttle back infection and also those most at risk will see themselves issolating for months and however you do things, you want to be doing that anyhow. So infect, isolating those who high risk and letting others carry on and manage infection rate with hospital numbers as you will get risk people getting infected anyhow, so focusing on managing infection in those you can and getting it out the way, has logic behind it. yes people will die, they are not flowing that up, but equally, they are planning for those longterm to be lower than falling victim to the seasonal waves ala spanish flu and how that went. Yes it does seem harsh, but as an older person it is the best plan for the whole and I'm high risk.
- baq 7y ago
  you seem to believe that the government can control a function exponential in time but with incomplete and delayed information. what could possibly go wrong? you only have to miss one super spreader event and you're left with a runaway transmission that you only get to know about 5-10 days after it happened. also, if bojo wants to ask old people to stay home for 4 months in a couple weeks, why not ask them now to stay home for 4 and a half months? not enough dead in the calculation or what?
  - Zenst 7y ago
    I believe people are going to die, and looking at the long term counts over a short-term mentality and with that, having less deaths overall is a better plan than not. But if you have a solution to how an entire country can completely isolate and operate in today's times for any European sized country then I'm all ears to hear it as we are talking a year at least until any sort of vaccine is available. As for `super spreaders` that's a given, just the same way Europe has easy access to heroin and cocaine that are all imported - you can't stop things spreading even with best intentions and efforts and viruses are much smaller than smuggled drugs. So given that, people who spread this will happen and how would you ever stop that? Sure isolate from the vulnerable and at risk and those groups are already on the case, heck the amount of old people I know and saw 2 weeks ago buying a years worth of toilet roll - well, they are already self isolating and no need to be told by some PM they may or may not respect when they have a lifetime of common sense and experience to draw upon and effectively kick into war-mode mentality lockdown. Though many will learn that over the comming year as this is a world war, only it's the entire world this time fighting a virus. Looking at how the spanish flu went, the real fear is not the hear and now, but the winter to come.
    - baq 7y ago
      my plan would be pretty much what my country is trying to do (I hope) and what South Korea has successfully done already: tell everyone to sit on their asses while massively scaling up testing capabilities so that everyone can test every few days. follow up on every positive case, quarantine carrier and all contacts. test everyone (literally) crossing the border, quarantine as above. this allows to open the country back up while waiting for a vaccine in 12-18 months... or however long it takes.
      - makomk 7y ago
        South Korea can test about 10,000 patients a day. Their total population is about 50 million. They've primarily been relying on contact tracing to target their testing, I think.
        baq 7y ago
- ianlevesque 7y ago
  You are of course assuming (not knowing) that it’ll confer long term immunity in the first place. How’s that working out for influenza?
- HarHarVeryFunny 7y ago
  As Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". These cool (and callous) calculations will be forgotten the second the hospitals get overwhelmed and there is chaos everywhere. When the country is on fire, the government will be pissing on fires.
  - Zenst 7y ago
    That is why they are already planning for overload and with that, having extra buffer layers. Hotels, emergency hospital bed spaces from army, etc etc, already being put in place. Then need for ventilators, many companies been contacted to step up and see if they can make more as many will be needed beyond what any country has. So plans are afoot. Cool calculations involving the facts that people will die, happen more often in many walks of life without being questioned. Kinda how insurance policies work. If those calculations show less people die overall then how can that be bad - yes it's involving human life but you have to look at the big picture and not just yourself. I'm about 50% likely to die from this given my health and age, if I'm one of those stats that is in the death count, then so be it, I'll die I certainly won't be blaming the current planned approach by the UK and has much going for it, time will tell but hey - worst case We are an Island so you can all set up navigation warning buoys if it all goes pete tong (sorry British Humour included and slang "pete tong" sames as going pear shaped, going wrong...).
eloff 7y ago
You realize your hospitals are going to be swamped by coronavirus cases and people are going to start dying from other treatable conditions - the exact thing you're worried about. Your logic appears to be backwards.
- throw7337 7y ago
  It depends on how fast corona virus goes away.

Zenst 7y ago

Indeed, you realy want the bulk of those who will not have complications to catch it early and leaving schools open, enables that. Over making every parent stay at home to look after their child! Coz you need to balance out infections and with that manage them, so you will see periodic lockdowns in some parts to throttle back infection and also those most at risk will see themselves issolating for months and however you do things, you want to be doing that anyhow. So infect, isolating those who high risk and letting others carry on and manage infection rate with hospital numbers as you will get risk people getting infected anyhow, so focusing on managing infection in those you can and getting it out the way, has logic behind it. yes people will die, they are not flowing that up, but equally, they are planning for those longterm to be lower than falling victim to the seasonal waves ala spanish flu and how that went. Yes it does seem harsh, but as an older person it is the best plan for the whole and I'm high risk.

baq 7y ago
you seem to believe that the government can control a function exponential in time but with incomplete and delayed information. what could possibly go wrong? you only have to miss one super spreader event and you're left with a runaway transmission that you only get to know about 5-10 days after it happened. also, if bojo wants to ask old people to stay home for 4 months in a couple weeks, why not ask them now to stay home for 4 and a half months? not enough dead in the calculation or what?
- Zenst 7y ago
  I believe people are going to die, and looking at the long term counts over a short-term mentality and with that, having less deaths overall is a better plan than not. But if you have a solution to how an entire country can completely isolate and operate in today's times for any European sized country then I'm all ears to hear it as we are talking a year at least until any sort of vaccine is available. As for `super spreaders` that's a given, just the same way Europe has easy access to heroin and cocaine that are all imported - you can't stop things spreading even with best intentions and efforts and viruses are much smaller than smuggled drugs. So given that, people who spread this will happen and how would you ever stop that? Sure isolate from the vulnerable and at risk and those groups are already on the case, heck the amount of old people I know and saw 2 weeks ago buying a years worth of toilet roll - well, they are already self isolating and no need to be told by some PM they may or may not respect when they have a lifetime of common sense and experience to draw upon and effectively kick into war-mode mentality lockdown. Though many will learn that over the comming year as this is a world war, only it's the entire world this time fighting a virus. Looking at how the spanish flu went, the real fear is not the hear and now, but the winter to come.
  - baq 7y ago
    my plan would be pretty much what my country is trying to do (I hope) and what South Korea has successfully done already: tell everyone to sit on their asses while massively scaling up testing capabilities so that everyone can test every few days. follow up on every positive case, quarantine carrier and all contacts. test everyone (literally) crossing the border, quarantine as above. this allows to open the country back up while waiting for a vaccine in 12-18 months... or however long it takes.
    - makomk 7y ago
      South Korea can test about 10,000 patients a day. Their total population is about 50 million. They've primarily been relying on contact tracing to target their testing, I think.
      - baq 7y ago
ianlevesque 7y ago
You are of course assuming (not knowing) that it’ll confer long term immunity in the first place. How’s that working out for influenza?
HarHarVeryFunny 7y ago
As Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". These cool (and callous) calculations will be forgotten the second the hospitals get overwhelmed and there is chaos everywhere. When the country is on fire, the government will be pissing on fires.
- Zenst 7y ago
  That is why they are already planning for overload and with that, having extra buffer layers. Hotels, emergency hospital bed spaces from army, etc etc, already being put in place. Then need for ventilators, many companies been contacted to step up and see if they can make more as many will be needed beyond what any country has. So plans are afoot. Cool calculations involving the facts that people will die, happen more often in many walks of life without being questioned. Kinda how insurance policies work. If those calculations show less people die overall then how can that be bad - yes it's involving human life but you have to look at the big picture and not just yourself. I'm about 50% likely to die from this given my health and age, if I'm one of those stats that is in the death count, then so be it, I'll die I certainly won't be blaming the current planned approach by the UK and has much going for it, time will tell but hey - worst case We are an Island so you can all set up navigation warning buoys if it all goes pete tong (sorry British Humour included and slang "pete tong" sames as going pear shaped, going wrong...).

eloff 7y ago

You realize your hospitals are going to be swamped by coronavirus cases and people are going to start dying from other treatable conditions - the exact thing you're worried about. Your logic appears to be backwards.

throw7337 7y ago
It depends on how fast corona virus goes away.