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Another very rough way to estimate this: If COVID-19 requires 10x more hospitalizations than influenza, and peak influenza maxes out hospital resources, then we

Another very rough way to estimate this: If COVID-19 requires 10x more hospitalizations than influenza, and peak influenza maxes out hospital resources, then we need at least 10x more capacity. Because there are so many variables, no one knows yet what the numbers will work out to be. The only safe thing to do is to expand capacity as much as possible by taking extreme measures.

chinathrow 7y ago
This is the right point of view. If you start building hospitals now, you might have a chance when the wave hits. By now, such a post will not get some downvotes as reality trickled in. Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards.
- masklinn 7y ago
  > This is the right point of view. If you start building hospitals now, you might have a chance when the wave hits. Probably not unless you have popup / prefab hospitals. > Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards. Italy is not "close to maxed out", it's way overcapacity. It might seem like it's at capacity if you count the total number of ICU beds in the entire country, but most of the cases for now are in the north, so the actual radio is way higher. Lombardia was at ~200% capacity circa wednesday.
  - chinathrow 7y ago
    > Lombardia was at ~200% capacity circa wednesday. Source? Mine is: https://www.giornaledibrescia.it/italia-ed-estero/coronavirus-gallera-siamo-vicini-a-un-punto-di-non-ritorno-1.3467066 https://www.giornaledibrescia.it/italia-ed-estero/coronaviru... Google Translate: "«We have very few free places in intensive care, now we are in the order of 15 or 20 available. Every day we get someone new, tomorrow 3 more arrive and San Raffaele is creating an area with 14 seats which will be ready, however, in a week. Today we recover them by closing the operating rooms, where there are respirators that can also be used to support the breath »."
    - baq 7y ago
      don't know about you but that sounds like way over designed capacity...
      - chinathrow 7y ago
        Sure if you look at "designed" capacity. I was looking at "current" capacity, which is all what matters in this situation.
ajross 7y ago
Peak seasonal flu in a bad season might infect 5% of a population at once. Most people don't get any single flu strain due to pre-existing immunities and the resulting slow spread of the virus. COVID-19 can be vastly higher, no one has any immunity. The only real hope here is to prevent infections via quarantine measures, there is absolutely no way to build out the kind of health care capacity that would be needed in a pessimal outbreak.

chinathrow 7y ago

This is the right point of view. If you start building hospitals now, you might have a chance when the wave hits. By now, such a post will not get some downvotes as reality trickled in. Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards.

masklinn 7y ago
> This is the right point of view. If you start building hospitals now, you might have a chance when the wave hits. Probably not unless you have popup / prefab hospitals. > Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards. Italy is not "close to maxed out", it's way overcapacity. It might seem like it's at capacity if you count the total number of ICU beds in the entire country, but most of the cases for now are in the north, so the actual radio is way higher. Lombardia was at ~200% capacity circa wednesday.
- chinathrow 7y ago
  > Lombardia was at ~200% capacity circa wednesday. Source? Mine is: https://www.giornaledibrescia.it/italia-ed-estero/coronavirus-gallera-siamo-vicini-a-un-punto-di-non-ritorno-1.3467066 https://www.giornaledibrescia.it/italia-ed-estero/coronaviru... Google Translate: "«We have very few free places in intensive care, now we are in the order of 15 or 20 available. Every day we get someone new, tomorrow 3 more arrive and San Raffaele is creating an area with 14 seats which will be ready, however, in a week. Today we recover them by closing the operating rooms, where there are respirators that can also be used to support the breath »."
  - baq 7y ago
    don't know about you but that sounds like way over designed capacity...
    - chinathrow 7y ago
      Sure if you look at "designed" capacity. I was looking at "current" capacity, which is all what matters in this situation.

ajross 7y ago

Peak seasonal flu in a bad season might infect 5% of a population at once. Most people don't get any single flu strain due to pre-existing immunities and the resulting slow spread of the virus. COVID-19 can be vastly higher, no one has any immunity. The only real hope here is to prevent infections via quarantine measures, there is absolutely no way to build out the kind of health care capacity that would be needed in a pessimal outbreak.