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The exponential growth-to-the-whole-population makes a major assumption: everyone is susceptible. Given the virulence of COVID-19, and the surprising lack of
by dnautics 7y ago
The exponential growth-to-the-whole-population makes a major assumption: everyone is susceptible. Given the virulence of COVID-19, and the surprising lack of total population penetration in Hubei (now that we know just how late the quarantining efforts were given the apparent latency between carrier status and symptoms) one wonders if there isn't, say, a genetic factor which makes one more susceptible than others, for starters, and if COVID-19 simply has/will burn itself out in many places.
- hef19898 7y agoPlus, everyone who got at the beginning, and went through it, will be immune for a certain time. So these interactions have to be taken into account as well. Plus everyone being immune from the beginning. So no, no exponential function. But as the math guy said, "indistinguishable from an exponential in the beginning". Edit: The math guy being 3Blue1Brown in his video linked elsewhere in this thread.
- codingslave 7y agoI personally believe that there is a genetic susceptibility to the virus, but unfortunately, any kind of academic study regarding this is mostly suppressed/shamed. But if you go back an read studies of SARS, many will straight out say that specific genetic pools within China were more susceptible than others.