There is also the issue of assuming that social distancing only reduces the number of cases by 90%. Social distancing affects the exponent. Depending on how agg

There is also the issue of assuming that social distancing only reduces the number of cases by 90%. Social distancing affects the exponent. Depending on how aggressive it is it could reduce the height of the peak by a lot more than 90%. I also have no idea the basis for the 10-50x assumption r.e. confirmed/unconfirmed cases.